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Выборы·Болгария

# of seats won by GERB-SDS in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

Market icon
Выборы·Болгария

# of seats won by GERB-SDS in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

50-54 37%

<50 36%

55-59 19%

65-69 19%

Polymarket
NEW

50-54 37%

<50 36%

55-59 19%

65-69 19%

Polymarket
NEW

<50

$20 Объем

36%

50-54

$20 Объем

37%

55-59

$20 Объем

19%

60-64

$20 Объем

41%

65-69

$20 Объем

19%

70+

$27 Объем

14%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (fieldwork March 12-21) show GERB-SDS holding steady at 20-22% vote intention among decided voters, projecting 50-56 seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% parliamentary threshold. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 60-64 seats (41%) and bands around 50 (36.5% each for <50 and 50-54), reflecting a fragmented field where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 29-31%, PP-DB at 12%, DPS-NN-NI at 10%, and Vazrazhdane at 5-8%, splitting the vote. The April 19 snap election follows the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation amid budget protests; low expected turnout (51%) favors GERB-SDS's stable base, but Progressive Bulgaria's surge and undecided voters keep outcomes tight. Late campaign shifts or nationalist consolidation could push GERB-SDS toward 70+ or below 50.

Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (fieldwork March 12-21) show GERB-SDS holding steady at 20-22% vote intention among decided voters, projecting 50-56 seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% parliamentary threshold. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 60-64 seats (41%) and bands around 50 (36.5% each for <50 and 50-54), reflecting a fragmented field where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 29-31%, PP-DB at 12%, DPS-NN-NI at 10%, and Vazrazhdane at 5-8%, splitting the vote. The April 19 snap election follows the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation amid budget protests; low expected turnout (51%) favors GERB-SDS's stable base, but Progressive Bulgaria's surge and undecided voters keep outcomes tight. Late campaign shifts or nationalist consolidation could push GERB-SDS toward 70+ or below 50.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (fieldwork March 12-21) show GERB-SDS holding steady at 20-22% vote intention among decided voters, projecting 50-56 seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% parliamentary threshold. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 60-64 seats (41%) and bands around 50 (36.5% each for <50 and 50-54), reflecting a fragmented field where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 29-31%, PP-DB at 12%, DPS-NN-NI at 10%, and Vazrazhdane at 5-8%, splitting the vote. The April 19 snap election follows the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation amid budget protests; low expected turnout (51%) favors GERB-SDS's stable base, but Progressive Bulgaria's surge and undecided voters keep outcomes tight. Late campaign shifts or nationalist consolidation could push GERB-SDS toward 70+ or below 50.

Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (fieldwork March 12-21) show GERB-SDS holding steady at 20-22% vote intention among decided voters, projecting 50-56 seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% parliamentary threshold. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 60-64 seats (41%) and bands around 50 (36.5% each for <50 and 50-54), reflecting a fragmented field where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 29-31%, PP-DB at 12%, DPS-NN-NI at 10%, and Vazrazhdane at 5-8%, splitting the vote. The April 19 snap election follows the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation amid budget protests; low expected turnout (51%) favors GERB-SDS's stable base, but Progressive Bulgaria's surge and undecided voters keep outcomes tight. Late campaign shifts or nationalist consolidation could push GERB-SDS toward 70+ or below 50.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Текущий фаворит для «# of seats won by GERB-SDS in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?» — «60-64» с 41%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 41%. Следующий ближайший исход — «50-54» с 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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