President Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of his second term, with no verified developments in the past 30 days indicating resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, impeachment proceedings, or incapacity. Ongoing cabinet confirmation hearings in a Republican-controlled Senate and initial executive actions on border security and energy policy signal stable governance, reinforcing trader consensus at 98% for "No." This high implied probability reflects the absence of catalysts for early departure, consistent with historical precedents where presidents rarely exit prematurely absent extraordinary events. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health crises, major scandals triggering resignation pressure, or unprecedented legal challenges, though none appear imminent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
$19,567 Объем
NEW
$19,567 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
NEW
$19,567 Объем
NEW
$19,567 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of his second term, with no verified developments in the past 30 days indicating resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, impeachment proceedings, or incapacity. Ongoing cabinet confirmation hearings in a Republican-controlled Senate and initial executive actions on border security and energy policy signal stable governance, reinforcing trader consensus at 98% for "No." This high implied probability reflects the absence of catalysts for early departure, consistent with historical precedents where presidents rarely exit prematurely absent extraordinary events. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health crises, major scandals triggering resignation pressure, or unprecedented legal challenges, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Объем
$19,567Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of his second term, with no verified developments in the past 30 days indicating resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, impeachment proceedings, or incapacity. Ongoing cabinet confirmation hearings in a Republican-controlled Senate and initial executive actions on border security and energy policy signal stable governance, reinforcing trader consensus at 98% for "No." This high implied probability reflects the absence of catalysts for early departure, consistent with historical precedents where presidents rarely exit prematurely absent extraordinary events. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health crises, major scandals triggering resignation pressure, or unprecedented legal challenges, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$19,567Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of his second term, with no verified developments in the past 30 days indicating resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, impeachment proceedings, or incapacity. Ongoing cabinet confirmation hearings in a Republican-controlled Senate and initial executive actions on border security and energy policy signal stable governance, reinforcing trader consensus at 98% for "No." This high implied probability reflects the absence of catalysts for early departure, consistent with historical precedents where presidents rarely exit prematurely absent extraordinary events. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen health crises, major scandals triggering resignation pressure, or unprecedented legal challenges, though none appear imminent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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