Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30, driven by the absence of any announced bilateral summit plans despite ongoing lower-level diplomacy. A March 10 phone call addressed Ukraine peace prospects and the Iran war, while Russia stated on March 26 it hopes for new Ukraine talks "as soon as conditions allow," but without specifying leaders' involvement. Separate consecutive visits to China—Trump in mid-May, Putin earlier—highlight uncoordinated bilateral engagements rather than a joint venue. Prior in-person summits, like Alaska in August 2025, have not materialized since amid Ukraine stalemate and Middle East escalations, with envoys handling recent Kremlin discussions. Potential trilateral Ukraine negotiations remain a wildcard.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНет встречи до 30 июня 82.5%
Страна Персидского залива 3.8%
Россия 2.9%
Другая страна ЕС 2.8%
$4,115,806 Объем
$4,115,806 Объем
Нет встречи до 30 июня
83%
Страна Персидского залива
4%
Россия
3%
Другая страна ЕС
3%
Китай
2%
Другое
2%
Соединённые Штаты
2%
Турция
1%
Беларусь
1%
Украина
<1%
Швейцария
<1%
Япония
<1%
Финляндия
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Нет встречи до 30 июня 82.5%
Страна Персидского залива 3.8%
Россия 2.9%
Другая страна ЕС 2.8%
$4,115,806 Объем
$4,115,806 Объем
Нет встречи до 30 июня
83%
Страна Персидского залива
4%
Россия
3%
Другая страна ЕС
3%
Китай
2%
Другое
2%
Соединённые Штаты
2%
Турция
1%
Беларусь
1%
Украина
<1%
Швейцария
<1%
Япония
<1%
Финляндия
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Австралия
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability on no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30, driven by the absence of any announced bilateral summit plans despite ongoing lower-level diplomacy. A March 10 phone call addressed Ukraine peace prospects and the Iran war, while Russia stated on March 26 it hopes for new Ukraine talks "as soon as conditions allow," but without specifying leaders' involvement. Separate consecutive visits to China—Trump in mid-May, Putin earlier—highlight uncoordinated bilateral engagements rather than a joint venue. Prior in-person summits, like Alaska in August 2025, have not materialized since amid Ukraine stalemate and Middle East escalations, with envoys handling recent Kremlin discussions. Potential trilateral Ukraine negotiations remain a wildcard.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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