Trader consensus assigns an 89% implied probability to no in-person meeting between President Trump and President Putin by June 30, reflecting the absence of announced summit plans amid Ukraine de-escalation handled via U.S. envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Recent catalysts include Trump's brokered three-day ceasefire around May 9, Putin's statement that the war is "coming to an end," and Miami talks on May 11 prompting expected negotiator visits, favoring intermediary diplomacy over direct leader talks. The Kremlin's reiterated open invitation for Trump to visit Moscow elevates Russia to 3.8%, while Trump's ongoing Beijing summit with Xi Jinping—followed separately by Putin-Xi—lacks momentum for a joint venue like China (2.5%). Late-breaking negotiations or invitations could alter odds before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTrump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
















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