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Геополитика·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Market icon
Геополитика·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$111 Объем

Polymarket

June 30

$1 Объем

5%

December 31

$110 Объем

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto leader, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities (around 5-13% for removal by June or December 2026) due to no verified challenges or health issues in the past 30 days. Recent diplomatic activity, including March 24 calls with UK Prime Minister and reported advocacy to President Trump amid US-Iran tensions, underscores his influence and alliances. King Salman, aged 90, underwent reassuring medical tests in January 2026 and has since chaired cabinet sessions, stabilizing succession expectations. Saudi royal politics remain opaque, but MBS's prior purges and Vision 2030 reforms have consolidated power, barring unforeseen events like sudden royal health crises or internal coups.

Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto leader, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities (around 5-13% for removal by June or December 2026) due to no verified challenges or health issues in the past 30 days. Recent diplomatic activity, including March 24 calls with UK Prime Minister and reported advocacy to President Trump amid US-Iran tensions, underscores his influence and alliances. King Salman, aged 90, underwent reassuring medical tests in January 2026 and has since chaired cabinet sessions, stabilizing succession expectations. Saudi royal politics remain opaque, but MBS's prior purges and Vision 2030 reforms have consolidated power, barring unforeseen events like sudden royal health crises or internal coups.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto leader, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities (around 5-13% for removal by June or December 2026) due to no verified challenges or health issues in the past 30 days. Recent diplomatic activity, including March 24 calls with UK Prime Minister and reported advocacy to President Trump amid US-Iran tensions, underscores his influence and alliances. King Salman, aged 90, underwent reassuring medical tests in January 2026 and has since chaired cabinet sessions, stabilizing succession expectations. Saudi royal politics remain opaque, but MBS's prior purges and Vision 2030 reforms have consolidated power, barring unforeseen events like sudden royal health crises or internal coups.

Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and de facto leader, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities (around 5-13% for removal by June or December 2026) due to no verified challenges or health issues in the past 30 days. Recent diplomatic activity, including March 24 calls with UK Prime Minister and reported advocacy to President Trump amid US-Iran tensions, underscores his influence and alliances. King Salman, aged 90, underwent reassuring medical tests in January 2026 and has since chaired cabinet sessions, stabilizing succession expectations. Saudi royal politics remain opaque, but MBS's prior purges and Vision 2030 reforms have consolidated power, barring unforeseen events like sudden royal health crises or internal coups.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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«Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «December 31» с 11%, за ним следует «June 30» с 5%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 11¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 11%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 27, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?» — «December 31» с 11%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 11%. Следующий ближайший исход — «June 30» с 5%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.