Amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis during the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran has restricted maritime traffic, launching attacks on merchant vessels, imposing tolls via IRGC checks near Larak Island, and permitting only "non-hostile" ships to transit after coordination, as stated to the UN on March 24. President Trump extended the full reopening deadline to April 6, threatening strikes on Iranian energy sites while calling on allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for escorts. France and the UK lead talks with about 30 nations on a coalition to restore freedom of navigation, though European states have rejected immediate warship commitments and US Navy escorts remain unfeasible for now. No confirmed non-US warship transits have occurred recently, with the April 6 deadline a key catalyst for potential naval deployments or escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Соединённые Штаты
54%
United Kingdom
24%
France
8%
Pakistan
7%
Greece
4%
Japan
4%
Italy
4%
India
4%
Canada
3%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
2%
$3,405 Объем
Соединённые Штаты
$40 Объем
54%
United Kingdom
$1,020 Объем
24%
France
$520 Объем
8%
Pakistan
$212 Объем
7%
Greece
$125 Объем
4%
Japan
$142 Объем
4%
Italy
$223 Объем
4%
India
$360 Объем
4%
Canada
$173 Объем
3%
Netherlands
$178 Объем
2%
Germany
$423 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis during the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran has restricted maritime traffic, launching attacks on merchant vessels, imposing tolls via IRGC checks near Larak Island, and permitting only "non-hostile" ships to transit after coordination, as stated to the UN on March 24. President Trump extended the full reopening deadline to April 6, threatening strikes on Iranian energy sites while calling on allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for escorts. France and the UK lead talks with about 30 nations on a coalition to restore freedom of navigation, though European states have rejected immediate warship commitments and US Navy escorts remain unfeasible for now. No confirmed non-US warship transits have occurred recently, with the April 6 deadline a key catalyst for potential naval deployments or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Объем
$3,405Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis during the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran has restricted maritime traffic, launching attacks on merchant vessels, imposing tolls via IRGC checks near Larak Island, and permitting only "non-hostile" ships to transit after coordination, as stated to the UN on March 24. President Trump extended the full reopening deadline to April 6, threatening strikes on Iranian energy sites while calling on allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for escorts. France and the UK lead talks with about 30 nations on a coalition to restore freedom of navigation, though European states have rejected immediate warship commitments and US Navy escorts remain unfeasible for now. No confirmed non-US warship transits have occurred recently, with the April 6 deadline a key catalyst for potential naval deployments or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Объем
$3,405Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis during the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran has restricted maritime traffic, launching attacks on merchant vessels, imposing tolls via IRGC checks near Larak Island, and permitting only "non-hostile" ships to transit after coordination, as stated to the UN on March 24. President Trump extended the full reopening deadline to April 6, threatening strikes on Iranian energy sites while calling on allies including the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China to deploy warships for escorts. France and the UK lead talks with about 30 nations on a coalition to restore freedom of navigation, though European states have rejected immediate warship commitments and US Navy escorts remain unfeasible for now. No confirmed non-US warship transits have occurred recently, with the April 6 deadline a key catalyst for potential naval deployments or escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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