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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 70.8%

Реза Пехлеви 6%

Аббас Арагчи 3.8%

Нет главы государства 3.4%

Polymarket

$14,390,888 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 70.8%

Реза Пехлеви 6%

Аббас Арагчи 3.8%

Нет главы государства 3.4%

Polymarket

$14,390,888 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$2,576,024 Объем

71%

Реза Пехлеви

$259,109 Объем

6%

Аббас Арагчи

$490,999 Объем

4%

Нет главы государства

$775,764 Объем

3%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$454,011 Объем

2%

Хассан Хомейни

$1,097,471 Объем

1%

Хасан Рухани

$572,440 Объем

1%

Алиреза Арафи

$1,916,726 Объем

1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$625,831 Объем

1%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$428,962 Объем

1%

Марьям Раджави

$599,323 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$669,091 Объем

<1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$338,079 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$427,469 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$232,185 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$313,778 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$125,945 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$139,582 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$144,135 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$69,945 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$140,355 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$118,848 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Вahidi

$452,529 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$179,978 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$271,214 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$154,235 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$57,018 Объем

<1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$306,305 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$128,418 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$88,397 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a commanding lead in trader consensus because the Assembly of Experts appointed him supreme leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with backing from hardline clerical and IRGC networks seeking continuity during active conflict. This rapid dynastic transition, despite longstanding regime aversion to hereditary succession, anchors the 70.8% probability for him remaining in office at the end of 2026. Lower odds for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Abbas Araghchi reflect limited organized opposition momentum and the Assembly’s decisive early action, while modest probabilities for “No Head of State” or other clerics capture ongoing uncertainty from reports of Mojtaba’s limited public role and health questions since his appointment.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$14,390,888
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a commanding lead in trader consensus because the Assembly of Experts appointed him supreme leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with backing from hardline clerical and IRGC networks seeking continuity during active conflict. This rapid dynastic transition, despite longstanding regime aversion to hereditary succession, anchors the 70.8% probability for him remaining in office at the end of 2026. Lower odds for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Abbas Araghchi reflect limited organized opposition momentum and the Assembly’s decisive early action, while modest probabilities for “No Head of State” or other clerics capture ongoing uncertainty from reports of Mojtaba’s limited public role and health questions since his appointment.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$14,390,888
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 71%, за ним следует «Реза Пехлеви» с 6%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 71¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 71%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $14.4 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 71%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 71%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Реза Пехлеви» с 6%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.