Trader consensus leans heavily against a full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, with "No" shares at 72.5%, reflecting the State Department's current posture of authorized departure for nonessential personnel and family members since September 2024, but no ordered departure for core diplomatic staff. Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges have heightened risks in Lebanon, yet official U.S. assessments deem the embassy viable amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, including recent U.N. ceasefire resolutions and U.S.-mediated talks. No primary announcements signal imminent full withdrawal, and historical precedents show embassies enduring similar volatility without evacuation, tempering trader expectations despite fluid regional dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Объем
$99Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Объем
$99Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily against a full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, with "No" shares at 72.5%, reflecting the State Department's current posture of authorized departure for nonessential personnel and family members since September 2024, but no ordered departure for core diplomatic staff. Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah cross-border exchanges have heightened risks in Lebanon, yet official U.S. assessments deem the embassy viable amid diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, including recent U.N. ceasefire resolutions and U.S.-mediated talks. No primary announcements signal imminent full withdrawal, and historical precedents show embassies enduring similar volatility without evacuation, tempering trader expectations despite fluid regional dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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