Iranian regime resilience amid economic pressures and external military actions continues to underpin the 82.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following widespread protests from late 2025 into early 2026 driven by currency collapse and inflation, authorities conducted a sustained crackdown involving mass arrests and internet restrictions that quelled unrest by mid-January. The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security institutions and the IRGC reaffirming loyalty. As of May 2026, Iranian leaders have advanced proposals to shape ceasefire terms in ongoing negotiations, signaling internal cohesion and contingency planning against renewed unrest or blockades. These developments highlight structural barriers to regime change within the tight timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$17,928,273 Объем
$17,928,273 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$17,928,273 Объем
$17,928,273 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian regime resilience amid economic pressures and external military actions continues to underpin the 82.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following widespread protests from late 2025 into early 2026 driven by currency collapse and inflation, authorities conducted a sustained crackdown involving mass arrests and internet restrictions that quelled unrest by mid-January. The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security institutions and the IRGC reaffirming loyalty. As of May 2026, Iranian leaders have advanced proposals to shape ceasefire terms in ongoing negotiations, signaling internal cohesion and contingency planning against renewed unrest or blockades. These developments highlight structural barriers to regime change within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Объем
$17,928,273Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian regime resilience amid economic pressures and external military actions continues to underpin the 82.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following widespread protests from late 2025 into early 2026 driven by currency collapse and inflation, authorities conducted a sustained crackdown involving mass arrests and internet restrictions that quelled unrest by mid-January. The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security institutions and the IRGC reaffirming loyalty. As of May 2026, Iranian leaders have advanced proposals to shape ceasefire terms in ongoing negotiations, signaling internal cohesion and contingency planning against renewed unrest or blockades. These developments highlight structural barriers to regime change within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,928,283Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian regime resilience amid economic pressures and external military actions continues to underpin the 82.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following widespread protests from late 2025 into early 2026 driven by currency collapse and inflation, authorities conducted a sustained crackdown involving mass arrests and internet restrictions that quelled unrest by mid-January. The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with security institutions and the IRGC reaffirming loyalty. As of May 2026, Iranian leaders have advanced proposals to shape ceasefire terms in ongoing negotiations, signaling internal cohesion and contingency planning against renewed unrest or blockades. These developments highlight structural barriers to regime change within the tight timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы