Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, including the assassination of the IRGC Navy chief and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's regime core—Supreme Leader, IRGC, and Guardian Council—remains intact with no signs of mass defections, widespread protests, or internal collapse. U.S. intelligence assessments on March 12 confirmed the government faces no imminent risk, while Israeli military leaders expressed doubts this week about toppling the regime soon through external pressure alone. Netanyahu noted visible stress signals on March 19 but cautioned survival is likely, reflecting trader consensus implying 66.5% odds against fall before 2027 amid the regime's historical resilience to sanctions and military actions. Upcoming diplomatic off-ramps or further escalations could shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$11,855,033 Объем
$11,855,033 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$11,855,033 Объем
$11,855,033 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, including the assassination of the IRGC Navy chief and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's regime core—Supreme Leader, IRGC, and Guardian Council—remains intact with no signs of mass defections, widespread protests, or internal collapse. U.S. intelligence assessments on March 12 confirmed the government faces no imminent risk, while Israeli military leaders expressed doubts this week about toppling the regime soon through external pressure alone. Netanyahu noted visible stress signals on March 19 but cautioned survival is likely, reflecting trader consensus implying 66.5% odds against fall before 2027 amid the regime's historical resilience to sanctions and military actions. Upcoming diplomatic off-ramps or further escalations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Объем
$11,855,033Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, including the assassination of the IRGC Navy chief and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's regime core—Supreme Leader, IRGC, and Guardian Council—remains intact with no signs of mass defections, widespread protests, or internal collapse. U.S. intelligence assessments on March 12 confirmed the government faces no imminent risk, while Israeli military leaders expressed doubts this week about toppling the regime soon through external pressure alone. Netanyahu noted visible stress signals on March 19 but cautioned survival is likely, reflecting trader consensus implying 66.5% odds against fall before 2027 amid the regime's historical resilience to sanctions and military actions. Upcoming diplomatic off-ramps or further escalations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$11,855,033Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, including the assassination of the IRGC Navy chief and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's regime core—Supreme Leader, IRGC, and Guardian Council—remains intact with no signs of mass defections, widespread protests, or internal collapse. U.S. intelligence assessments on March 12 confirmed the government faces no imminent risk, while Israeli military leaders expressed doubts this week about toppling the regime soon through external pressure alone. Netanyahu noted visible stress signals on March 19 but cautioned survival is likely, reflecting trader consensus implying 66.5% odds against fall before 2027 amid the regime's historical resilience to sanctions and military actions. Upcoming diplomatic off-ramps or further escalations could shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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