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Геополитика·США х Иран

Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?

icon for Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?
Геополитика·США х Иран

Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?

Ended: апр. 30

Ended: апр. 30

$5,846,810 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$5,846,810 Объем

Polymarket

Израиль

$16,598 Объем

Да

Иордания

$11,957 Объем

Да

Саудовская Аравия

$41,566 Объем

Да

Бахрейн

$204,021 Объем

Да

ОАЭ

$112,616 Объем

Да

Кувейт

$14,518 Объем

Да

Турция

$45,186 Объем

Нет

Кипр

$29,238 Объем

Нет

Катар

$262,965 Объем

Нет

Ирак

$2,113,422 Объем

Да

Афганистан

$12,182 Объем

Нет

Пакистан

$54,474 Объем

Нет

Йемен

$21,664 Объем

Нет

Оман

$112,170 Объем

Нет

Сирия

$28,090 Объем

Нет

Ливан

$65,843 Объем

Нет

Индия

$30,302 Объем

Нет

Испания

$11,385 Объем

Нет

Франция

$50,991 Объем

Нет

Германия

$22,889 Объем

Нет

Польша

$40,238 Объем

Нет

Италия

$4,107 Объем

Нет

Венгрия

$26,172 Объем

Нет

Украина

$16,197 Объем

Нет

Азербайджан

$109,980 Объем

Нет

Армения

$11,913 Объем

Нет

Грузия

$18,231 Объем

Нет

Великобритания

$31,836 Объем

Нет

Саудовская Аравия

$13,021 Объем

Да

Иордания

$79,392 Объем

Нет

Бахрейн

$1,194,234 Объем

Нет

Кувейт

$1,039,409 Объем

Да

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$5,846,810
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$5,846,810
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Израиль» с 100%, за ним следует «Иордания» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $5.8 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 24, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?» — «Израиль» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Иордания» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Военные действия Ирана против ___ к 30 апреля?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.