Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions four weeks into the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict that began late February 2026. Commercial transits plummeted 95% since early March, with recent AIS data showing just 0.7% of normal daily volumes (around 60 vessels), as Iran enforces selective gatekeeping for "non-hostile" ships amid threats and attacks. Skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums and tanker rates reflect heightened supply chain risks, squeezing global oil flows and elevating Brent crude volatility. Absent a ceasefire or de-escalation—key catalysts traders await—volumes remain stalled far below IMF Portwatch benchmarks for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$1,489,836 Объем
$1,489,836 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
$1,489,836 Объем
$1,489,836 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions four weeks into the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict that began late February 2026. Commercial transits plummeted 95% since early March, with recent AIS data showing just 0.7% of normal daily volumes (around 60 vessels), as Iran enforces selective gatekeeping for "non-hostile" ships amid threats and attacks. Skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums and tanker rates reflect heightened supply chain risks, squeezing global oil flows and elevating Brent crude volatility. Absent a ceasefire or de-escalation—key catalysts traders await—volumes remain stalled far below IMF Portwatch benchmarks for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Объем
$1,489,836Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions four weeks into the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict that began late February 2026. Commercial transits plummeted 95% since early March, with recent AIS data showing just 0.7% of normal daily volumes (around 60 vessels), as Iran enforces selective gatekeeping for "non-hostile" ships amid threats and attacks. Skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums and tanker rates reflect heightened supply chain risks, squeezing global oil flows and elevating Brent crude volatility. Absent a ceasefire or de-escalation—key catalysts traders await—volumes remain stalled far below IMF Portwatch benchmarks for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$1,489,836Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by persistent disruptions four weeks into the Iran-U.S./Israel conflict that began late February 2026. Commercial transits plummeted 95% since early March, with recent AIS data showing just 0.7% of normal daily volumes (around 60 vessels), as Iran enforces selective gatekeeping for "non-hostile" ships amid threats and attacks. Skyrocketing war-risk insurance premiums and tanker rates reflect heightened supply chain risks, squeezing global oil flows and elevating Brent crude volatility. Absent a ceasefire or de-escalation—key catalysts traders await—volumes remain stalled far below IMF Portwatch benchmarks for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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