Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% implied probability for "No," driven by persistent dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran amid escalating conflict, which throttled commercial shipping traffic to under 10% of normal April volumes per AIS data from sources like AXSMarine and Kpler. April transits plummeted over 90% year-over-year, limited to sporadic Iran-linked or sanctioned tankers, confirming no return to pre-disruption levels by month-end despite brief ceasefires. This geopolitical risk premium has fueled global energy supply shocks, with oil markets pricing in prolonged constraints. Tail risks include an unforeseen diplomatic resolution or unilateral de-escalation reopening the chokepoint fully, though current stalemate dynamics render such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$37,235,255 Объем
$37,235,255 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Да
$37,235,255 Объем
$37,235,255 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% implied probability for "No," driven by persistent dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran amid escalating conflict, which throttled commercial shipping traffic to under 10% of normal April volumes per AIS data from sources like AXSMarine and Kpler. April transits plummeted over 90% year-over-year, limited to sporadic Iran-linked or sanctioned tankers, confirming no return to pre-disruption levels by month-end despite brief ceasefires. This geopolitical risk premium has fueled global energy supply shocks, with oil markets pricing in prolonged constraints. Tail risks include an unforeseen diplomatic resolution or unilateral de-escalation reopening the chokepoint fully, though current stalemate dynamics render such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Объем
$37,235,255Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% implied probability for "No," driven by persistent dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran amid escalating conflict, which throttled commercial shipping traffic to under 10% of normal April volumes per AIS data from sources like AXSMarine and Kpler. April transits plummeted over 90% year-over-year, limited to sporadic Iran-linked or sanctioned tankers, confirming no return to pre-disruption levels by month-end despite brief ceasefires. This geopolitical risk premium has fueled global energy supply shocks, with oil markets pricing in prolonged constraints. Tail risks include an unforeseen diplomatic resolution or unilateral de-escalation reopening the chokepoint fully, though current stalemate dynamics render such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$37,235,255Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.9% implied probability for "No," driven by persistent dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran amid escalating conflict, which throttled commercial shipping traffic to under 10% of normal April volumes per AIS data from sources like AXSMarine and Kpler. April transits plummeted over 90% year-over-year, limited to sporadic Iran-linked or sanctioned tankers, confirming no return to pre-disruption levels by month-end despite brief ceasefires. This geopolitical risk premium has fueled global energy supply shocks, with oil markets pricing in prolonged constraints. Tail risks include an unforeseen diplomatic resolution or unilateral de-escalation reopening the chokepoint fully, though current stalemate dynamics render such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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