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Геополитика·Награды 50, 4.5, 20

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Market icon
Геополитика·Награды 50, 4.5, 20

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

10

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 30

0-10 51%

50-60 42%

20-30 41%

40-50 40%

Polymarket
NEW

0-10 51%

50-60 42%

20-30 41%

40-50 40%

Polymarket
NEW

0-10

$20 Объем

51%

10-20

$0 Объем

40%

20-30

$0 Объем

41%

30-40

$0 Объем

10%

40-50

$0 Объем

40%

50-60

$0 Объем

42%

60+

$0 Объем

40%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$20
Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026
Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors minimal ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, with the 0-10 range leading at 51% implied probability, driven by acute geopolitical tensions following Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's Syrian consulate and Tehran's vows of retaliation, including strait closure threats that spiked oil futures by over 3%. Yet, the 50-60 band trails closely at 42.5%, highlighting competitive dynamics between escalation bears pricing in disruptions—bolstered by rising war risk insurance premiums and preemptive vessel rerouting—and bulls citing U.S. Fifth Fleet deterrence and historical resilience, where daily averages exceed 100 merchant vessels absent blockades. Key differentiators include real-time AIS tracking for actual counts and Iran's naval posturing versus OPEC+ supply stability needs, underscoring market-implied odds' sensitivity to de-escalation signals ahead of resolution.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0-10» с 51%, за ним следует «50-60» с 42%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 51¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 51%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 24, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?» — «0-10» с 51%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 51%. Следующий ближайший исход — «50-60» с 42%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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