Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5% implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day in March 2026, reflecting the 2026 crisis where Iran's IRGC-imposed vetting and toll system—recently ratified by parliament—has constrained daily arrivals to 3-7 vessels per IMF Portwatch data, down from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100. A reported 21 transits on March 28 (13 AIS-visible plus shadow fleet) introduced brief uncertainty, but traders discount it amid disputes over official counting and persistent US-Iran hostilities blocking commercial flows. Brent crude holds near $108 per barrel on supply shock fears through this key chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade, with March 31 Portwatch release as the final catalyst ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$610,343 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
20+
3%
40+
1%
60+
2%
80+
<1%
$610,343 Объем
20+
$282,638 Объем
3%
40+
$102,481 Объем
1%
60+
$86,695 Объем
2%
80+
$138,541 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5% implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day in March 2026, reflecting the 2026 crisis where Iran's IRGC-imposed vetting and toll system—recently ratified by parliament—has constrained daily arrivals to 3-7 vessels per IMF Portwatch data, down from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100. A reported 21 transits on March 28 (13 AIS-visible plus shadow fleet) introduced brief uncertainty, but traders discount it amid disputes over official counting and persistent US-Iran hostilities blocking commercial flows. Brent crude holds near $108 per barrel on supply shock fears through this key chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade, with March 31 Portwatch release as the final catalyst ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Объем
$610,343Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5% implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day in March 2026, reflecting the 2026 crisis where Iran's IRGC-imposed vetting and toll system—recently ratified by parliament—has constrained daily arrivals to 3-7 vessels per IMF Portwatch data, down from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100. A reported 21 transits on March 28 (13 AIS-visible plus shadow fleet) introduced brief uncertainty, but traders discount it amid disputes over official counting and persistent US-Iran hostilities blocking commercial flows. Brent crude holds near $108 per barrel on supply shock fears through this key chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade, with March 31 Portwatch release as the final catalyst ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$610,343Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 5% implied probability for 20 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day in March 2026, reflecting the 2026 crisis where Iran's IRGC-imposed vetting and toll system—recently ratified by parliament—has constrained daily arrivals to 3-7 vessels per IMF Portwatch data, down from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100. A reported 21 transits on March 28 (13 AIS-visible plus shadow fleet) introduced brief uncertainty, but traders discount it amid disputes over official counting and persistent US-Iran hostilities blocking commercial flows. Brent crude holds near $108 per barrel on supply shock fears through this key chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade, with March 31 Portwatch release as the final catalyst ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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