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Геополитика·Награды 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

Market icon
Геополитика·Награды 50, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

мар. 23

мар. 29

апр. 5

мар. 23

мар. 29

апр. 5

25-29 20%

30-34 20%

35-39 17%

20-24 16%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

25-29 20%

30-34 20%

35-39 17%

20-24 16%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

<10

$462 Объем

1%

10-14

$361 Объем

3%

15-19

$252 Объем

7%

20-24

$307 Объем

16%

25-29

$277 Объем

20%

30-34

$274 Объем

20%

35-39

$270 Объем

17%

40-44

$225 Объем

12%

45+

$366 Объем

12%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing Iran conflict that erupted in late February, ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted over 95% from pre-war averages of around 1,000 vessels weekly, with only 181 recorded in March per Lloyd's List data—mostly Iranian-flagged. Trader consensus clusters tightly at 25-39 ships for March 30-April 5 (19.5%-17.5% each), reflecting a recent uptick of at least 20 crossings since March 28 including container ships, per Argus Media and Windward, against prior days of 0-4 AIS-visible vessels. This fragile rebound under IRGC-tolled passages keeps odds competitive, while Houthi threats, backlog risks, and potential U.S. escorts or attacks could surge volumes above 45 or drop below 20 by week's end, as tracked by IMF PortWatch resolution data.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$2,753
Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing Iran conflict that erupted in late February, ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted over 95% from pre-war averages of around 1,000 vessels weekly, with only 181 recorded in March per Lloyd's List data—mostly Iranian-flagged. Trader consensus clusters tightly at 25-39 ships for March 30-April 5 (19.5%-17.5% each), reflecting a recent uptick of at least 20 crossings since March 28 including container ships, per Argus Media and Windward, against prior days of 0-4 AIS-visible vessels. This fragile rebound under IRGC-tolled passages keeps odds competitive, while Houthi threats, backlog risks, and potential U.S. escorts or attacks could surge volumes above 45 or drop below 20 by week's end, as tracked by IMF PortWatch resolution data.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$2,753
Дата окончания
5 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «25-29» с 20%, за ним следует «30-34» с 20%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 20¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 20%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Mar 30, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)» — «25-29» с 20%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 20%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30-34» с 20%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.