Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, alongside Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% against a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Massive Russian missile and drone barrages—the largest on record in late December 2024—targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, prompting retaliatory strikes deep into Russia. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine's demilitarization, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal and reparations, leaving core positions irreconcilable absent major diplomatic shifts. No talks are scheduled, though potential U.S. policy changes post-inauguration could alter dynamics, but battlefield momentum sustains prolonged conflict expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРоссия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 июня 2026 года?
Россия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 июня 2026 года?
Да
$3,643,363 Объем
$3,643,363 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Да
$3,643,363 Объем
$3,643,363 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, alongside Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% against a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Massive Russian missile and drone barrages—the largest on record in late December 2024—targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, prompting retaliatory strikes deep into Russia. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine's demilitarization, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal and reparations, leaving core positions irreconcilable absent major diplomatic shifts. No talks are scheduled, though potential U.S. policy changes post-inauguration could alter dynamics, but battlefield momentum sustains prolonged conflict expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Объем
$3,643,363Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, alongside Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% against a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Massive Russian missile and drone barrages—the largest on record in late December 2024—targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, prompting retaliatory strikes deep into Russia. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine's demilitarization, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal and reparations, leaving core positions irreconcilable absent major diplomatic shifts. No talks are scheduled, though potential U.S. policy changes post-inauguration could alter dynamics, but battlefield momentum sustains prolonged conflict expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$3,643,363Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, alongside Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion, signal persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, anchoring trader consensus at 85.5% against a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Massive Russian missile and drone barrages—the largest on record in late December 2024—targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, prompting retaliatory strikes deep into Russia. Moscow demands recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine's demilitarization, while Kyiv insists on full withdrawal and reparations, leaving core positions irreconcilable absent major diplomatic shifts. No talks are scheduled, though potential U.S. policy changes post-inauguration could alter dynamics, but battlefield momentum sustains prolonged conflict expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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