Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks and intensifying military actions. Recent developments include Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, causing significant Ukrainian civilian casualties, alongside a new spring offensive along frontline areas from Sumy to Donetsk. Diplomatic efforts paused amid the Iran war escalation, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and no progress on security guarantees. Zelenskiy met U.S. counterparts on March 22 for prisoner exchanges but urged sustained pressure on Russia, underscoring entrenched positions amid ongoing strikes and no scheduled breakthrough summits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРоссия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 июня 2026 года?
Россия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 июня 2026 года?
Да
$3,645,025 Объем
$3,645,025 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Да
$3,645,025 Объем
$3,645,025 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks and intensifying military actions. Recent developments include Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, causing significant Ukrainian civilian casualties, alongside a new spring offensive along frontline areas from Sumy to Donetsk. Diplomatic efforts paused amid the Iran war escalation, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and no progress on security guarantees. Zelenskiy met U.S. counterparts on March 22 for prisoner exchanges but urged sustained pressure on Russia, underscoring entrenched positions amid ongoing strikes and no scheduled breakthrough summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Объем
$3,645,025Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks and intensifying military actions. Recent developments include Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, causing significant Ukrainian civilian casualties, alongside a new spring offensive along frontline areas from Sumy to Donetsk. Diplomatic efforts paused amid the Iran war escalation, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and no progress on security guarantees. Zelenskiy met U.S. counterparts on March 22 for prisoner exchanges but urged sustained pressure on Russia, underscoring entrenched positions amid ongoing strikes and no scheduled breakthrough summits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$3,645,025Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks and intensifying military actions. Recent developments include Russia's launch of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, causing significant Ukrainian civilian casualties, alongside a new spring offensive along frontline areas from Sumy to Donetsk. Diplomatic efforts paused amid the Iran war escalation, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—refused by Kyiv—and no progress on security guarantees. Zelenskiy met U.S. counterparts on March 22 for prisoner exchanges but urged sustained pressure on Russia, underscoring entrenched positions amid ongoing strikes and no scheduled breakthrough summits.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы