Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, held in Geneva in February 2026, remain stalled as of late March, with talks paused amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran and recent Russian airstrikes killing civilians in Ukrainian cities on March 28. Russian forces intensified ground offensives and launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling no de-escalation despite Kremlin statements hoping for resumed talks if conditions allow. Divergences persist over territorial concessions and security guarantees, with President Zelenskyy awaiting US and Russian scheduling for the next round ahead of a prospective June deadline. These military escalations and diplomatic impasse underpin trader consensus pricing a pre-2027 peace deal at low odds, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid entrenched positions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$186,655 Объем
$186,655 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$186,655 Объем
$186,655 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, held in Geneva in February 2026, remain stalled as of late March, with talks paused amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran and recent Russian airstrikes killing civilians in Ukrainian cities on March 28. Russian forces intensified ground offensives and launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling no de-escalation despite Kremlin statements hoping for resumed talks if conditions allow. Divergences persist over territorial concessions and security guarantees, with President Zelenskyy awaiting US and Russian scheduling for the next round ahead of a prospective June deadline. These military escalations and diplomatic impasse underpin trader consensus pricing a pre-2027 peace deal at low odds, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Объем
$186,655Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, held in Geneva in February 2026, remain stalled as of late March, with talks paused amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran and recent Russian airstrikes killing civilians in Ukrainian cities on March 28. Russian forces intensified ground offensives and launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling no de-escalation despite Kremlin statements hoping for resumed talks if conditions allow. Divergences persist over territorial concessions and security guarantees, with President Zelenskyy awaiting US and Russian scheduling for the next round ahead of a prospective June deadline. These military escalations and diplomatic impasse underpin trader consensus pricing a pre-2027 peace deal at low odds, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$186,655Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, held in Geneva in February 2026, remain stalled as of late March, with talks paused amid escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran and recent Russian airstrikes killing civilians in Ukrainian cities on March 28. Russian forces intensified ground offensives and launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling no de-escalation despite Kremlin statements hoping for resumed talks if conditions allow. Divergences persist over territorial concessions and security guarantees, with President Zelenskyy awaiting US and Russian scheduling for the next round ahead of a prospective June deadline. These military escalations and diplomatic impasse underpin trader consensus pricing a pre-2027 peace deal at low odds, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid entrenched positions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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