Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026 at just 33.5% ("No" at 66.5%), driven by incompatible red lines and persistent military escalations. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, including captures near Kurakhove, alongside massive reciprocal drone and missile barrages, highlight Moscow's operational momentum without de-escalation signals. President Putin's late December interview reiterated preconditions—Ukrainian cession of Crimea and four eastern oblasts, plus demilitarization and neutrality—while Kyiv demands full Russian troop withdrawal and reparations. A December POW swap marked limited humanitarian engagement, but no formal talks have emerged despite President-elect Trump's pledges for swift negotiations post-January inauguration. Historical base rates for such entrenched invasions favor prolonged stalemate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$12,210,131 Объем
$12,210,131 Объем
Да
$12,210,131 Объем
$12,210,131 Объем
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026 at just 33.5% ("No" at 66.5%), driven by incompatible red lines and persistent military escalations. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, including captures near Kurakhove, alongside massive reciprocal drone and missile barrages, highlight Moscow's operational momentum without de-escalation signals. President Putin's late December interview reiterated preconditions—Ukrainian cession of Crimea and four eastern oblasts, plus demilitarization and neutrality—while Kyiv demands full Russian troop withdrawal and reparations. A December POW swap marked limited humanitarian engagement, but no formal talks have emerged despite President-elect Trump's pledges for swift negotiations post-January inauguration. Historical base rates for such entrenched invasions favor prolonged stalemate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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