Putin’s current six-year term, secured in the March 2024 election, runs until 2030, with constitutional amendments permitting two additional terms that could extend his tenure to 2036. As of mid-2026, he remains fully engaged in governance, maintaining approval ratings near 79 percent while overseeing legislative preparations and foreign policy outreach. No verified health concerns, elite defections, or institutional challenges have emerged that would trigger an early exit. Russia’s tightly controlled political system, with suppressed opposition and managed elite balancing, further reduces near-term turnover risks. Traders therefore assign only a 9.5 percent chance of removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the structural barriers and absence of imminent catalysts for change.