Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-2026, with U.S. mediation yielding only limited temporary pauses such as the three-day halt around Victory Day in May that included prisoner exchanges. Recent developments include Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June meetings in London with British, German, and French leaders to explore greater European involvement after Washington reduced its role amid persistent disagreements over territorial control and security guarantees. Russian President Putin has rejected immediate direct talks with Zelenskyy, citing no current basis for progress, while earlier Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral sessions produced some discussion on monitoring mechanisms without advancing to a durable agreement. Traders weigh these entrenched positions against the possibility of renewed negotiations or external pressure before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСоглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
Соглашение о прекращении огня между Россией и Украиной...?
$3,577,413 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
30 июня
6%
31 октября
29%
31 декабря
46%
$3,577,413 Объем
30 июня
$796,331 Объем
6%
31 октября
$212,506 Объем
29%
31 декабря
$1,751,341 Объем
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-2026, with U.S. mediation yielding only limited temporary pauses such as the three-day halt around Victory Day in May that included prisoner exchanges. Recent developments include Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June meetings in London with British, German, and French leaders to explore greater European involvement after Washington reduced its role amid persistent disagreements over territorial control and security guarantees. Russian President Putin has rejected immediate direct talks with Zelenskyy, citing no current basis for progress, while earlier Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral sessions produced some discussion on monitoring mechanisms without advancing to a durable agreement. Traders weigh these entrenched positions against the possibility of renewed negotiations or external pressure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Объем
$3,577,413Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-2026, with U.S. mediation yielding only limited temporary pauses such as the three-day halt around Victory Day in May that included prisoner exchanges. Recent developments include Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June meetings in London with British, German, and French leaders to explore greater European involvement after Washington reduced its role amid persistent disagreements over territorial control and security guarantees. Russian President Putin has rejected immediate direct talks with Zelenskyy, citing no current basis for progress, while earlier Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral sessions produced some discussion on monitoring mechanisms without advancing to a durable agreement. Traders weigh these entrenched positions against the possibility of renewed negotiations or external pressure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,577,413Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-2026, with U.S. mediation yielding only limited temporary pauses such as the three-day halt around Victory Day in May that included prisoner exchanges. Recent developments include Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June meetings in London with British, German, and French leaders to explore greater European involvement after Washington reduced its role amid persistent disagreements over territorial control and security guarantees. Russian President Putin has rejected immediate direct talks with Zelenskyy, citing no current basis for progress, while earlier Geneva and Abu Dhabi trilateral sessions produced some discussion on monitoring mechanisms without advancing to a durable agreement. Traders weigh these entrenched positions against the possibility of renewed negotiations or external pressure before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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