Russia's recent nuclear forces drills in Siberia, involving RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads and conducted in early April 2026, signal heightened readiness amid the February expiration of the New START treaty, which ended mutual inspections and limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. No explosive nuclear tests—banned under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), from which Russia withdrew ratification in 2023—have occurred since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption and announced plans for 2026 tests of new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles like successors to Topol-M. US claims of secret Russian tests remain denied by the Kremlin, with traders monitoring Ukraine war escalations, diplomatic signals, or US policy shifts under Trump for catalysts that could alter this standoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$1,336,189 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
1%
September 30, 2026
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
12%
$1,336,189 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$2,840 Объем
1%
September 30, 2026
$1,257 Объем
10%
31 декабря 2026 года
$7,518 Объем
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's recent nuclear forces drills in Siberia, involving RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads and conducted in early April 2026, signal heightened readiness amid the February expiration of the New START treaty, which ended mutual inspections and limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. No explosive nuclear tests—banned under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), from which Russia withdrew ratification in 2023—have occurred since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption and announced plans for 2026 tests of new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles like successors to Topol-M. US claims of secret Russian tests remain denied by the Kremlin, with traders monitoring Ukraine war escalations, diplomatic signals, or US policy shifts under Trump for catalysts that could alter this standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Объем
$1,336,189Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's recent nuclear forces drills in Siberia, involving RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads and conducted in early April 2026, signal heightened readiness amid the February expiration of the New START treaty, which ended mutual inspections and limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. No explosive nuclear tests—banned under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), from which Russia withdrew ratification in 2023—have occurred since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption and announced plans for 2026 tests of new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles like successors to Topol-M. US claims of secret Russian tests remain denied by the Kremlin, with traders monitoring Ukraine war escalations, diplomatic signals, or US policy shifts under Trump for catalysts that could alter this standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,336,189Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's recent nuclear forces drills in Siberia, involving RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads and conducted in early April 2026, signal heightened readiness amid the February expiration of the New START treaty, which ended mutual inspections and limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. No explosive nuclear tests—banned under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), from which Russia withdrew ratification in 2023—have occurred since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order for proposals on potential resumption and announced plans for 2026 tests of new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles like successors to Topol-M. US claims of secret Russian tests remain denied by the Kremlin, with traders monitoring Ukraine war escalations, diplomatic signals, or US policy shifts under Trump for catalysts that could alter this standoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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