Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks with Russia. After Geneva meetings in February 2026 yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territorial withdrawals, negotiations paused in mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, per recent reports. Despite December 2025 offers from President Zelenskyy to forgo NATO ambitions for Western security guarantees, Kyiv has rejected Russian demands for constitutional amendments barring alliance membership without reciprocal concessions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in late March that accession is not imminent, while Ukraine pivots to EU integration goals by 2027, underscoring diplomatic deadlock and low near-term resolution prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$69,344 Объем
$69,344 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$69,344 Объем
$69,344 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks with Russia. After Geneva meetings in February 2026 yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territorial withdrawals, negotiations paused in mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, per recent reports. Despite December 2025 offers from President Zelenskyy to forgo NATO ambitions for Western security guarantees, Kyiv has rejected Russian demands for constitutional amendments barring alliance membership without reciprocal concessions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in late March that accession is not imminent, while Ukraine pivots to EU integration goals by 2027, underscoring diplomatic deadlock and low near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Объем
$69,344Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks with Russia. After Geneva meetings in February 2026 yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territorial withdrawals, negotiations paused in mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, per recent reports. Despite December 2025 offers from President Zelenskyy to forgo NATO ambitions for Western security guarantees, Kyiv has rejected Russian demands for constitutional amendments barring alliance membership without reciprocal concessions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in late March that accession is not imminent, while Ukraine pivots to EU integration goals by 2027, underscoring diplomatic deadlock and low near-term resolution prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Объем
$69,344Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks with Russia. After Geneva meetings in February 2026 yielded no breakthrough on core issues like territorial withdrawals, negotiations paused in mid-March amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, per recent reports. Despite December 2025 offers from President Zelenskyy to forgo NATO ambitions for Western security guarantees, Kyiv has rejected Russian demands for constitutional amendments barring alliance membership without reciprocal concessions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in late March that accession is not imminent, while Ukraine pivots to EU integration goals by 2027, underscoring diplomatic deadlock and low near-term resolution prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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