The low trader-implied probabilities on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflect the continued adherence to the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, reinforced by official clarifications limiting any resumed activities to subcritical experiments and non-yield system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with alleged Russian and Chinese activities prompted immediate walk-backs from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials, emphasizing stockpile stewardship programs over full detonations. No explosive tests have occurred as of September 2026, and preparing infrastructure for a yield-producing event would require months of visible preparation amid strong international opposition and domestic political resistance, including from Nevada lawmakers. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and arms-control discussions through year-end could further constrain timelines, while any shift in administration statements or verified foreign tests remain the primary variables that could alter near-term odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$795,359 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
6%
$795,359 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$57,628 Объем
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
$76,920 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low trader-implied probabilities on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflect the continued adherence to the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, reinforced by official clarifications limiting any resumed activities to subcritical experiments and non-yield system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with alleged Russian and Chinese activities prompted immediate walk-backs from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials, emphasizing stockpile stewardship programs over full detonations. No explosive tests have occurred as of September 2026, and preparing infrastructure for a yield-producing event would require months of visible preparation amid strong international opposition and domestic political resistance, including from Nevada lawmakers. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and arms-control discussions through year-end could further constrain timelines, while any shift in administration statements or verified foreign tests remain the primary variables that could alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$795,359Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low trader-implied probabilities on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflect the continued adherence to the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, reinforced by official clarifications limiting any resumed activities to subcritical experiments and non-yield system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with alleged Russian and Chinese activities prompted immediate walk-backs from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials, emphasizing stockpile stewardship programs over full detonations. No explosive tests have occurred as of September 2026, and preparing infrastructure for a yield-producing event would require months of visible preparation amid strong international opposition and domestic political resistance, including from Nevada lawmakers. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and arms-control discussions through year-end could further constrain timelines, while any shift in administration statements or verified foreign tests remain the primary variables that could alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$795,359Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The low trader-implied probabilities on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflect the continued adherence to the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, reinforced by official clarifications limiting any resumed activities to subcritical experiments and non-yield system tests at the Nevada National Security Site. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to test “on an equal basis” with alleged Russian and Chinese activities prompted immediate walk-backs from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials, emphasizing stockpile stewardship programs over full detonations. No explosive tests have occurred as of September 2026, and preparing infrastructure for a yield-producing event would require months of visible preparation amid strong international opposition and domestic political resistance, including from Nevada lawmakers. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and arms-control discussions through year-end could further constrain timelines, while any shift in administration statements or verified foreign tests remain the primary variables that could alter near-term odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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