The Trump administration's October 2025 executive directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by alleged Russian and Chinese activities—continues to shape the landscape, though no full-scale underground explosive test has occurred as of early April 2026. Recent March reports indicate Department of Energy and Pentagon preparations at Nevada Test Site facilities, where the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains test readiness posture under annual Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan funding. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to block resumption, and State Department affirmations of restraint amid Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty discussions add uncertainty, while international reactions from Moscow highlight escalation risks; traders monitor for official announcements or NNSA fiscal year updates that could trigger activity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$611,084 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
September 30, 2026
11%
December 31, 2026
14%
$611,084 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$50 Объем
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 Объем
11%
December 31, 2026
$693 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 executive directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by alleged Russian and Chinese activities—continues to shape the landscape, though no full-scale underground explosive test has occurred as of early April 2026. Recent March reports indicate Department of Energy and Pentagon preparations at Nevada Test Site facilities, where the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains test readiness posture under annual Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan funding. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to block resumption, and State Department affirmations of restraint amid Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty discussions add uncertainty, while international reactions from Moscow highlight escalation risks; traders monitor for official announcements or NNSA fiscal year updates that could trigger activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$611,084Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 executive directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by alleged Russian and Chinese activities—continues to shape the landscape, though no full-scale underground explosive test has occurred as of early April 2026. Recent March reports indicate Department of Energy and Pentagon preparations at Nevada Test Site facilities, where the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains test readiness posture under annual Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan funding. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to block resumption, and State Department affirmations of restraint amid Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty discussions add uncertainty, while international reactions from Moscow highlight escalation risks; traders monitor for official announcements or NNSA fiscal year updates that could trigger activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$611,084Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's October 2025 executive directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by alleged Russian and Chinese activities—continues to shape the landscape, though no full-scale underground explosive test has occurred as of early April 2026. Recent March reports indicate Department of Energy and Pentagon preparations at Nevada Test Site facilities, where the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains test readiness posture under annual Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan funding. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to block resumption, and State Department affirmations of restraint amid Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty discussions add uncertainty, while international reactions from Moscow highlight escalation risks; traders monitor for official announcements or NNSA fiscal year updates that could trigger activity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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