President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities and amid the New START Treaty’s February 2026 expiration, remains the primary driver of trader positioning. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments and system checks rather than full-yield explosive detonations, while the Nevada National Security Site requires substantial lead time and funding to restore underground explosive capability. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to maintain the 1992 moratorium, and NNSA assessments that explosive tests are unnecessary for stockpile stewardship have further tempered expectations. No such test has occurred, leaving implied probabilities for an explosive event by late 2026 very low amid competing priorities and diplomatic signaling risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$770,068 Объем
29 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
4%
$770,068 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$57,189 Объем
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
$52,068 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities and amid the New START Treaty’s February 2026 expiration, remains the primary driver of trader positioning. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments and system checks rather than full-yield explosive detonations, while the Nevada National Security Site requires substantial lead time and funding to restore underground explosive capability. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to maintain the 1992 moratorium, and NNSA assessments that explosive tests are unnecessary for stockpile stewardship have further tempered expectations. No such test has occurred, leaving implied probabilities for an explosive event by late 2026 very low amid competing priorities and diplomatic signaling risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$770,068Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities and amid the New START Treaty’s February 2026 expiration, remains the primary driver of trader positioning. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments and system checks rather than full-yield explosive detonations, while the Nevada National Security Site requires substantial lead time and funding to restore underground explosive capability. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to maintain the 1992 moratorium, and NNSA assessments that explosive tests are unnecessary for stockpile stewardship have further tempered expectations. No such test has occurred, leaving implied probabilities for an explosive event by late 2026 very low amid competing priorities and diplomatic signaling risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$770,068Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities and amid the New START Treaty’s February 2026 expiration, remains the primary driver of trader positioning. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments and system checks rather than full-yield explosive detonations, while the Nevada National Security Site requires substantial lead time and funding to restore underground explosive capability. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to maintain the 1992 moratorium, and NNSA assessments that explosive tests are unnecessary for stockpile stewardship have further tempered expectations. No such test has occurred, leaving implied probabilities for an explosive event by late 2026 very low amid competing priorities and diplomatic signaling risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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