President Trump's October 2025 statements directing preparations for nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities initially raised trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of Defense indicated focus on subcritical experiments, delivery systems, or modernization rather than full-yield explosive tests. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration repeatedly stating no technical need exists. New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. intelligence reports on alleged Chinese low-yield tests have sustained discussion of arms control breakdowns, but Senate oversight, international treaty pressures, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to constrain near-term resumption. These factors explain the low implied probabilities across 2026 resolution dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$666,780 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
3%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
9%
$666,780 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$40,037 Объем
3%
30 сентября 2026 года
$6,052 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,472 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing preparations for nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities initially raised trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of Defense indicated focus on subcritical experiments, delivery systems, or modernization rather than full-yield explosive tests. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration repeatedly stating no technical need exists. New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. intelligence reports on alleged Chinese low-yield tests have sustained discussion of arms control breakdowns, but Senate oversight, international treaty pressures, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to constrain near-term resumption. These factors explain the low implied probabilities across 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$666,780Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing preparations for nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities initially raised trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of Defense indicated focus on subcritical experiments, delivery systems, or modernization rather than full-yield explosive tests. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration repeatedly stating no technical need exists. New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. intelligence reports on alleged Chinese low-yield tests have sustained discussion of arms control breakdowns, but Senate oversight, international treaty pressures, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to constrain near-term resumption. These factors explain the low implied probabilities across 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$666,780Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing preparations for nuclear weapons testing in response to Russian and Chinese activities initially raised trader attention, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the Department of Defense indicated focus on subcritical experiments, delivery systems, or modernization rather than full-yield explosive tests. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration repeatedly stating no technical need exists. New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. intelligence reports on alleged Chinese low-yield tests have sustained discussion of arms control breakdowns, but Senate oversight, international treaty pressures, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to constrain near-term resumption. These factors explain the low implied probabilities across 2026 resolution dates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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