The U.S. has maintained its voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with no confirmed detonation of a device producing a nuclear chain reaction despite repeated administration statements about resuming tests on an “equal basis” with rivals. Trader consensus reflects this precedent, assigning low implied probabilities to near-term U.S. tests amid ongoing diplomatic pressure on China over alleged low-yield or decoupled explosions and related arms-control talks. The most recent activity at the Nevada National Security Site was a September 30, 2026, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment focused on refining detection algorithms rather than any explosive nuclear test. Structural barriers include Senate opposition, technical lead times of 24–36 months for full resumption, and the absence of immediate escalatory triggers within the resolution windows.