President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China sparked initial speculation, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments, delivery system checks, or non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with NNSA maintaining readiness timelines that extend well beyond immediate execution for any underground explosive test. As of mid-2026, congressional budget debates, stockpile stewardship reviews, and diplomatic engagement on arms control continue without confirmed plans for a full test. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities across near-term resolution dates incorporates these technical, legal, and political constraints alongside the possibility of policy shifts tied to ongoing strategic competition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$670,195 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
9%
$670,195 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$42,083 Объем
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
$7,151 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,742 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China sparked initial speculation, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments, delivery system checks, or non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with NNSA maintaining readiness timelines that extend well beyond immediate execution for any underground explosive test. As of mid-2026, congressional budget debates, stockpile stewardship reviews, and diplomatic engagement on arms control continue without confirmed plans for a full test. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities across near-term resolution dates incorporates these technical, legal, and political constraints alongside the possibility of policy shifts tied to ongoing strategic competition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$670,195Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China sparked initial speculation, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments, delivery system checks, or non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with NNSA maintaining readiness timelines that extend well beyond immediate execution for any underground explosive test. As of mid-2026, congressional budget debates, stockpile stewardship reviews, and diplomatic engagement on arms control continue without confirmed plans for a full test. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities across near-term resolution dates incorporates these technical, legal, and political constraints alongside the possibility of policy shifts tied to ongoing strategic competition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$670,195Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to perceived activities by Russia and China sparked initial speculation, yet subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized subcritical experiments, delivery system checks, or non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. has maintained its 1992 testing moratorium, with NNSA maintaining readiness timelines that extend well beyond immediate execution for any underground explosive test. As of mid-2026, congressional budget debates, stockpile stewardship reviews, and diplomatic engagement on arms control continue without confirmed plans for a full test. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities across near-term resolution dates incorporates these technical, legal, and political constraints alongside the possibility of policy shifts tied to ongoing strategic competition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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