Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iran’s key enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related facilities, destroying or severely damaging above-ground infrastructure, centrifuges, and support capabilities while leaving some deeply buried material unaccounted for. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran’s timeline to produce a nuclear device by at least one to two years or more, with no verified active weaponization program or structured effort to conduct a test. Iran has focused on concealment and limited reconstruction at surviving sites rather than rapid advancement toward detonation. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iran’s key enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related facilities, destroying or severely damaging above-ground infrastructure, centrifuges, and support capabilities while leaving some deeply buried material unaccounted for. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran’s timeline to produce a nuclear device by at least one to two years or more, with no verified active weaponization program or structured effort to conduct a test. Iran has focused on concealment and limited reconstruction at surviving sites rather than rapid advancement toward detonation. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iran’s key enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related facilities, destroying or severely damaging above-ground infrastructure, centrifuges, and support capabilities while leaving some deeply buried material unaccounted for. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran’s timeline to produce a nuclear device by at least one to two years or more, with no verified active weaponization program or structured effort to conduct a test. Iran has focused on concealment and limited reconstruction at surviving sites rather than rapid advancement toward detonation. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iran’s key enrichment and weaponization sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related facilities, destroying or severely damaging above-ground infrastructure, centrifuges, and support capabilities while leaving some deeply buried material unaccounted for. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran’s timeline to produce a nuclear device by at least one to two years or more, with no verified active weaponization program or structured effort to conduct a test. Iran has focused on concealment and limited reconstruction at surviving sites rather than rapid advancement toward detonation. These developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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