**Trader consensus on no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 reflects the extensive damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear infrastructure during 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes.** Major enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan were struck and largely rendered inoperable, while sites linked to weapons-related work, such as Minzadayi, faced repeated attacks. The IAEA has had no access to declared sites since mid-2025 and reports being unable to verify the status or location of Iran's pre-strike stockpile of roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Recent satellite imagery shows cleanup, repairs, and renewed activity at damaged locations, yet no evidence indicates operational enrichment to weapons-grade levels or weaponization steps that could enable a test by year-end. Ongoing diplomatic talks, U.S. and Israeli deterrence, and Iran's public statements reiterating its NPT commitments further support the high implied probability against a test in the brief remaining window. Late breakthroughs in reconstruction or a sudden policy shift could still alter trajectories, though such developments would face significant technical and political hurdles.