Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer with no detected resumption of enrichment activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks through May 2026 center on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA access, with Washington conditioning sanctions relief on verifiable limits and Tehran resisting immediate nuclear concessions. These developments, combined with sustained international monitoring gaps and institutional barriers to rapid weaponization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer with no detected resumption of enrichment activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks through May 2026 center on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA access, with Washington conditioning sanctions relief on verifiable limits and Tehran resisting immediate nuclear concessions. These developments, combined with sustained international monitoring gaps and institutional barriers to rapid weaponization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer with no detected resumption of enrichment activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks through May 2026 center on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA access, with Washington conditioning sanctions relief on verifiable limits and Tehran resisting immediate nuclear concessions. These developments, combined with sustained international monitoring gaps and institutional barriers to rapid weaponization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of Iran's breakout timeline to nine to twelve months or longer with no detected resumption of enrichment activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks through May 2026 center on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and IAEA access, with Washington conditioning sanctions relief on verifiable limits and Tehran resisting immediate nuclear concessions. These developments, combined with sustained international monitoring gaps and institutional barriers to rapid weaponization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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