Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, anchored by the latest IAEA verification report from late October 2024, which documented Iran's record 182 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but found no credible indications of diversion to weaponization or testing activities despite reduced agency access. Ongoing diplomatic stalemate post-JCPOA collapse, intensified sanctions, and recent Israel-Iran military exchanges that spared nuclear facilities reinforce deterrence, as a detectable test would invite severe retaliation. Iran's official statements rejecting nuclear arms ambitions, combined with high geopolitical barriers and no observed breakout signals, sustain these odds, though US policy shifts under a potential maximum-pressure administration or internal regime changes could prompt reassessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$121,140 Объем
$121,140 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$121,140 Объем
$121,140 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, anchored by the latest IAEA verification report from late October 2024, which documented Iran's record 182 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but found no credible indications of diversion to weaponization or testing activities despite reduced agency access. Ongoing diplomatic stalemate post-JCPOA collapse, intensified sanctions, and recent Israel-Iran military exchanges that spared nuclear facilities reinforce deterrence, as a detectable test would invite severe retaliation. Iran's official statements rejecting nuclear arms ambitions, combined with high geopolitical barriers and no observed breakout signals, sustain these odds, though US policy shifts under a potential maximum-pressure administration or internal regime changes could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$121,140Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, anchored by the latest IAEA verification report from late October 2024, which documented Iran's record 182 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but found no credible indications of diversion to weaponization or testing activities despite reduced agency access. Ongoing diplomatic stalemate post-JCPOA collapse, intensified sanctions, and recent Israel-Iran military exchanges that spared nuclear facilities reinforce deterrence, as a detectable test would invite severe retaliation. Iran's official statements rejecting nuclear arms ambitions, combined with high geopolitical barriers and no observed breakout signals, sustain these odds, though US policy shifts under a potential maximum-pressure administration or internal regime changes could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$121,140Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, anchored by the latest IAEA verification report from late October 2024, which documented Iran's record 182 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but found no credible indications of diversion to weaponization or testing activities despite reduced agency access. Ongoing diplomatic stalemate post-JCPOA collapse, intensified sanctions, and recent Israel-Iran military exchanges that spared nuclear facilities reinforce deterrence, as a detectable test would invite severe retaliation. Iran's official statements rejecting nuclear arms ambitions, combined with high geopolitical barriers and no observed breakout signals, sustain these odds, though US policy shifts under a potential maximum-pressure administration or internal regime changes could prompt reassessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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