Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including the Taleghan-2 complex linked to high-explosive testing. IAEA assessments confirm no active structured nuclear weapons program, while intelligence estimates place Iran at least 9–24 months or longer from weapon capability due to destroyed centrifuges, lost know-how, and disrupted supply chains. A ceasefire in April 2026 has not reversed these setbacks, and Iran’s rebuilding efforts remain limited and observable. These developments underpin the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require rapid undetected reconstruction or use of surviving stockpiles, scenarios constrained by ongoing monitoring gaps and sanctions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$196,569 Объем
$196,569 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including the Taleghan-2 complex linked to high-explosive testing. IAEA assessments confirm no active structured nuclear weapons program, while intelligence estimates place Iran at least 9–24 months or longer from weapon capability due to destroyed centrifuges, lost know-how, and disrupted supply chains. A ceasefire in April 2026 has not reversed these setbacks, and Iran’s rebuilding efforts remain limited and observable. These developments underpin the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require rapid undetected reconstruction or use of surviving stockpiles, scenarios constrained by ongoing monitoring gaps and sanctions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including the Taleghan-2 complex linked to high-explosive testing. IAEA assessments confirm no active structured nuclear weapons program, while intelligence estimates place Iran at least 9–24 months or longer from weapon capability due to destroyed centrifuges, lost know-how, and disrupted supply chains. A ceasefire in April 2026 has not reversed these setbacks, and Iran’s rebuilding efforts remain limited and observable. These developments underpin the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require rapid undetected reconstruction or use of surviving stockpiles, scenarios constrained by ongoing monitoring gaps and sanctions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$196,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including the Taleghan-2 complex linked to high-explosive testing. IAEA assessments confirm no active structured nuclear weapons program, while intelligence estimates place Iran at least 9–24 months or longer from weapon capability due to destroyed centrifuges, lost know-how, and disrupted supply chains. A ceasefire in April 2026 has not reversed these setbacks, and Iran’s rebuilding efforts remain limited and observable. These developments underpin the 92.5% implied probability against a nuclear test before 2027. A shift would require rapid undetected reconstruction or use of surviving stockpiles, scenarios constrained by ongoing monitoring gaps and sanctions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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