IAEA reports through late 2024 confirm no credible evidence of Iranian nuclear weaponization or test preparations, despite uranium stocks enriched to near-weapons grade levels sufficient for multiple bombs if further processed. Traders price "No" at 89.5% amid Iran's rejection of a US non-enrichment proposal for its Arak reactor and IAEA board censure for transparency lapses, signaling diplomatic stalemate rather than breakout. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in October avoided nuclear facilities, highlighting deterrence risks, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms and sustained US-EU sanctions constrain escalation. Absent major policy shifts, such as a revived JCPOA under a new US administration, structural barriers maintain low test probability before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
$121,140 Объем
$121,140 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$121,140 Объем
$121,140 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.IAEA reports through late 2024 confirm no credible evidence of Iranian nuclear weaponization or test preparations, despite uranium stocks enriched to near-weapons grade levels sufficient for multiple bombs if further processed. Traders price "No" at 89.5% amid Iran's rejection of a US non-enrichment proposal for its Arak reactor and IAEA board censure for transparency lapses, signaling diplomatic stalemate rather than breakout. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in October avoided nuclear facilities, highlighting deterrence risks, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms and sustained US-EU sanctions constrain escalation. Absent major policy shifts, such as a revived JCPOA under a new US administration, structural barriers maintain low test probability before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$121,140Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.IAEA reports through late 2024 confirm no credible evidence of Iranian nuclear weaponization or test preparations, despite uranium stocks enriched to near-weapons grade levels sufficient for multiple bombs if further processed. Traders price "No" at 89.5% amid Iran's rejection of a US non-enrichment proposal for its Arak reactor and IAEA board censure for transparency lapses, signaling diplomatic stalemate rather than breakout. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in October avoided nuclear facilities, highlighting deterrence risks, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms and sustained US-EU sanctions constrain escalation. Absent major policy shifts, such as a revived JCPOA under a new US administration, structural barriers maintain low test probability before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$121,140Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...IAEA reports through late 2024 confirm no credible evidence of Iranian nuclear weaponization or test preparations, despite uranium stocks enriched to near-weapons grade levels sufficient for multiple bombs if further processed. Traders price "No" at 89.5% amid Iran's rejection of a US non-enrichment proposal for its Arak reactor and IAEA board censure for transparency lapses, signaling diplomatic stalemate rather than breakout. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in October avoided nuclear facilities, highlighting deterrence risks, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms and sustained US-EU sanctions constrain escalation. Absent major policy shifts, such as a revived JCPOA under a new US administration, structural barriers maintain low test probability before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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