US-Cuba tensions have escalated since the US imposed an oil blockade in January 2026, intercepting Venezuelan and Mexican tankers and triggering nationwide blackouts and protests in Cuba on March 17. President Trump's reported comments positioning Cuba as a post-Iran intervention target, alongside a Cuban official's March 22 disclosure of military preparations for potential aggression, have fueled speculation. No airstrikes or invasion have occurred, with longstanding embargo policies tightened amid Havana's hosting of US adversaries. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, balancing rhetorical escalation against diplomatic precedents and US domestic priorities, with congressional foreign aid debates looming as a potential catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСША нанесли удар по Кубе...?
США нанесли удар по Кубе...?
$2,994,082 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 марта
<1%
31 декабря
31%
$2,994,082 Объем
31 марта
$1,644,148 Объем
<1%
31 декабря
$815,456 Объем
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US-Cuba tensions have escalated since the US imposed an oil blockade in January 2026, intercepting Venezuelan and Mexican tankers and triggering nationwide blackouts and protests in Cuba on March 17. President Trump's reported comments positioning Cuba as a post-Iran intervention target, alongside a Cuban official's March 22 disclosure of military preparations for potential aggression, have fueled speculation. No airstrikes or invasion have occurred, with longstanding embargo policies tightened amid Havana's hosting of US adversaries. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, balancing rhetorical escalation against diplomatic precedents and US domestic priorities, with congressional foreign aid debates looming as a potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Объем
$2,994,082Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US-Cuba tensions have escalated since the US imposed an oil blockade in January 2026, intercepting Venezuelan and Mexican tankers and triggering nationwide blackouts and protests in Cuba on March 17. President Trump's reported comments positioning Cuba as a post-Iran intervention target, alongside a Cuban official's March 22 disclosure of military preparations for potential aggression, have fueled speculation. No airstrikes or invasion have occurred, with longstanding embargo policies tightened amid Havana's hosting of US adversaries. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, balancing rhetorical escalation against diplomatic precedents and US domestic priorities, with congressional foreign aid debates looming as a potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$2,994,082Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Cuba tensions have escalated since the US imposed an oil blockade in January 2026, intercepting Venezuelan and Mexican tankers and triggering nationwide blackouts and protests in Cuba on March 17. President Trump's reported comments positioning Cuba as a post-Iran intervention target, alongside a Cuban official's March 22 disclosure of military preparations for potential aggression, have fueled speculation. No airstrikes or invasion have occurred, with longstanding embargo policies tightened amid Havana's hosting of US adversaries. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities, balancing rhetorical escalation against diplomatic precedents and US domestic priorities, with congressional foreign aid debates looming as a potential catalyst.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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