**US military contingency planning for Cuba has advanced amid sustained economic pressure but without confirmed deployment orders or imminent strikes.** In late September 2026, reports detailed U.S. Army Reserve assessments of logistics, engineering, medical, and military police units potentially available to U.S. Southern Command within 90-120 days, building on earlier reconnaissance of Cuban waters and air readiness measures. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a deal with Cuba is likely and military action is unnecessary, while the administration has tightened sanctions, restricted travel and banking access, and maintained an oil embargo. Cuba has rejected formal negotiations, citing sovereignty concerns over demands for political change, yet maintains communication channels and reports heightened defensive preparations. No combat operations have occurred, and analysts describe the activities as routine planning or leverage rather than imminent invasion orders. Key upcoming factors include the late-December-to-January window referenced in planning documents and any shifts in sanctions enforcement or diplomatic signals before then.