Farsi Island, a small restricted outpost hosting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran military conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. operations have included airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt naval threats and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside a naval blockade, yet these have targeted military infrastructure without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Recent developments, including reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones, reflect ongoing escalation but have not altered authority over Farsi itself. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the emphasis on airstrikes, sanctions, and capability degradation rather than ground seizures of minor outposts. No major diplomatic or military shifts altering this dynamic have occurred in the past 30 days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$198,173 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
1%
$198,173 Объем
30 сентября
$20,903 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted outpost hosting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran military conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. operations have included airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt naval threats and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside a naval blockade, yet these have targeted military infrastructure without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Recent developments, including reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones, reflect ongoing escalation but have not altered authority over Farsi itself. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the emphasis on airstrikes, sanctions, and capability degradation rather than ground seizures of minor outposts. No major diplomatic or military shifts altering this dynamic have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$198,173Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted outpost hosting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran military conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. operations have included airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt naval threats and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside a naval blockade, yet these have targeted military infrastructure without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Recent developments, including reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones, reflect ongoing escalation but have not altered authority over Farsi itself. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the emphasis on airstrikes, sanctions, and capability degradation rather than ground seizures of minor outposts. No major diplomatic or military shifts altering this dynamic have occurred in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$198,173Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small restricted outpost hosting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the U.S.-Iran military conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. operations have included airstrikes on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt naval threats and Strait of Hormuz shipping, alongside a naval blockade, yet these have targeted military infrastructure without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. Recent developments, including reported explosions on Qeshm and Iranian claims of downing U.S. drones, reflect ongoing escalation but have not altered authority over Farsi itself. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control, consistent with the emphasis on airstrikes, sanctions, and capability degradation rather than ground seizures of minor outposts. No major diplomatic or military shifts altering this dynamic have occurred in the past 30 days.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы