**The high implied probability against the US-Saudi nuclear deal entering into force in 2026 stems primarily from President Trump’s public linkage of the July 2026 Section 123 agreement to Saudi normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords, a condition absent from the negotiated text.** The pact, signed July 22 by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, establishes a 30-year framework for civil nuclear cooperation, including a potential path to limited uranium enrichment after a joint two-year study, while relying on a bilateral safeguards agreement rather than the IAEA Additional Protocol. Submitted to Congress in late August for the required 90-day review period, the deal faces opposition from nonproliferation advocates over enrichment provisions and oversight gaps. Saudi officials have rejected tying implementation to Israel ties, citing longstanding demands for a Palestinian state path, and no progress on normalization has occurred amid regional tensions. These political and procedural barriers—combined with the short remaining timeline in 2026—underpin trader expectations that the agreement will not take effect this year.