Houthi forces declared a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 20, 2026, followed by missile and drone strikes on vessels and expanded territorial control after seizing Mokha port, Perim Island, and nearby coastal areas in mid-September. These moves reduced daily transits by 50% or more from pre-July levels, with IMF PortWatch data showing averages near or below 10-15 tankers per day in recent weeks amid widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming advances near the strait, though independent verification remains limited and clashes continued with Houthi strikes on Aden airport as of October 7. The parallel disruption at the Strait of Hormuz has increased reliance on this route for some energy flows, keeping trader focus on whether ongoing attacks or further territorial shifts will push the 7-day moving average of arrivals to the effective closure threshold tracked by resolution sources.