Escalating Middle East tensions, driven by Houthi threats to restrict or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to U.S.-Iran naval friction and the effective Strait of Hormuz disruption, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. The chokepoint handles roughly 7-10% of global oil supply and significant container volumes; renewed warnings since late March 2026 have already cut daily crude transit to 4.1-4.2 million barrels from 9.3 million in 2023, lifted VLCC charter rates above $200,000 per day, and added roughly $2 per barrel in rerouting freight costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Brent crude has rebounded toward $92 per barrel as markets price in potential further supply constraints affecting up to 25% of energy flows. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran actions or Houthi responses to diplomatic developments through June.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБаб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт...?
Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт...?
$3,009,098 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
31 мая
4%
30 июня
11%
30 сентября
21%
$3,009,098 Объем
31 мая
$951,266 Объем
4%
30 июня
$62,738 Объем
11%
30 сентября
$13,302 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating Middle East tensions, driven by Houthi threats to restrict or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to U.S.-Iran naval friction and the effective Strait of Hormuz disruption, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. The chokepoint handles roughly 7-10% of global oil supply and significant container volumes; renewed warnings since late March 2026 have already cut daily crude transit to 4.1-4.2 million barrels from 9.3 million in 2023, lifted VLCC charter rates above $200,000 per day, and added roughly $2 per barrel in rerouting freight costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Brent crude has rebounded toward $92 per barrel as markets price in potential further supply constraints affecting up to 25% of energy flows. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran actions or Houthi responses to diplomatic developments through June.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Объем
$3,009,098Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Escalating Middle East tensions, driven by Houthi threats to restrict or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to U.S.-Iran naval friction and the effective Strait of Hormuz disruption, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. The chokepoint handles roughly 7-10% of global oil supply and significant container volumes; renewed warnings since late March 2026 have already cut daily crude transit to 4.1-4.2 million barrels from 9.3 million in 2023, lifted VLCC charter rates above $200,000 per day, and added roughly $2 per barrel in rerouting freight costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Brent crude has rebounded toward $92 per barrel as markets price in potential further supply constraints affecting up to 25% of energy flows. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran actions or Houthi responses to diplomatic developments through June.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$3,009,098Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Middle East tensions, driven by Houthi threats to restrict or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to U.S.-Iran naval friction and the effective Strait of Hormuz disruption, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. The chokepoint handles roughly 7-10% of global oil supply and significant container volumes; renewed warnings since late March 2026 have already cut daily crude transit to 4.1-4.2 million barrels from 9.3 million in 2023, lifted VLCC charter rates above $200,000 per day, and added roughly $2 per barrel in rerouting freight costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Brent crude has rebounded toward $92 per barrel as markets price in potential further supply constraints affecting up to 25% of energy flows. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran actions or Houthi responses to diplomatic developments through June.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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