Trader consensus prices seven countries at 31%, eight at 24%, and nine at 14% for US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters—Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela—through mid-April amid counterterrorism operations and the ongoing Iran war sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Recent CENTCOM announcements of continued airstrikes in Iran as of April 5 and naval actions like mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 sustain pressure without new countries, while the US handover of Syrian bases on April 16 signals potential de-escalation there. The tight race hinges on whether Iran ceasefire talks hold or proxy escalations spill into Lebanon or new ISIS/al-Shabaab targets emerge in Africa, with eight months left for diplomatic shifts or fresh threats to tip the count.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПротив скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
Против скольких разных стран США проведут военные действия в 2026 году?
7 31.4%
8 23.7%
9 14.4%
6 10.1%
$972,412 Объем
$972,412 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6
10%
7
31%
8
24%
9
14%
10
9%
11
4%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.4%
8 23.7%
9 14.4%
6 10.1%
$972,412 Объем
$972,412 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6
$423,199 Объем
10%
7
$6,744 Объем
31%
8
$105,255 Объем
24%
9
$11,332 Объем
14%
10
$11,829 Объем
9%
11
$16,940 Объем
4%
12
$28,360 Объем
3%
13
$47,166 Объем
2%
14
$42,028 Объем
1%
15+
$119,718 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven countries at 31%, eight at 24%, and nine at 14% for US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters—Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela—through mid-April amid counterterrorism operations and the ongoing Iran war sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Recent CENTCOM announcements of continued airstrikes in Iran as of April 5 and naval actions like mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 sustain pressure without new countries, while the US handover of Syrian bases on April 16 signals potential de-escalation there. The tight race hinges on whether Iran ceasefire talks hold or proxy escalations spill into Lebanon or new ISIS/al-Shabaab targets emerge in Africa, with eight months left for diplomatic shifts or fresh threats to tip the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Объем
$972,412Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven countries at 31%, eight at 24%, and nine at 14% for US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters—Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela—through mid-April amid counterterrorism operations and the ongoing Iran war sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Recent CENTCOM announcements of continued airstrikes in Iran as of April 5 and naval actions like mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 sustain pressure without new countries, while the US handover of Syrian bases on April 16 signals potential de-escalation there. The tight race hinges on whether Iran ceasefire talks hold or proxy escalations spill into Lebanon or new ISIS/al-Shabaab targets emerge in Africa, with eight months left for diplomatic shifts or fresh threats to tip the count.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$972,412Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices seven countries at 31%, eight at 24%, and nine at 14% for US military actions in 2026, reflecting six confirmed theaters—Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela—through mid-April amid counterterrorism operations and the ongoing Iran war sparked by joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Recent CENTCOM announcements of continued airstrikes in Iran as of April 5 and naval actions like mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz on April 11 sustain pressure without new countries, while the US handover of Syrian bases on April 16 signals potential de-escalation there. The tight race hinges on whether Iran ceasefire talks hold or proxy escalations spill into Lebanon or new ISIS/al-Shabaab targets emerge in Africa, with eight months left for diplomatic shifts or fresh threats to tip the count.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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