Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, anchored by the absence of kinetic escalation despite routine PLA warplane incursions and naval patrols. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech emphasizing peace and sovereignty without declaring independence, Beijing issued sharp diplomatic rebukes and deployed coast guard vessels near Taiwan's outlying islands but stopped short of provocative military drills, signaling restraint amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. US arms deliveries, including advanced missiles, bolster Taiwan's defenses, while analysts highlight Beijing's untested amphibious assault capabilities and the logistical hurdles of a cross-strait invasion, with preparations unlikely to mature by 2027. Upcoming US presidential transition and APEC summits could influence cross-strait diplomacy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$1,424,297 Объем
$1,424,297 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$1,424,297 Объем
$1,424,297 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, anchored by the absence of kinetic escalation despite routine PLA warplane incursions and naval patrols. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech emphasizing peace and sovereignty without declaring independence, Beijing issued sharp diplomatic rebukes and deployed coast guard vessels near Taiwan's outlying islands but stopped short of provocative military drills, signaling restraint amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. US arms deliveries, including advanced missiles, bolster Taiwan's defenses, while analysts highlight Beijing's untested amphibious assault capabilities and the logistical hurdles of a cross-strait invasion, with preparations unlikely to mature by 2027. Upcoming US presidential transition and APEC summits could influence cross-strait diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$1,424,297Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, anchored by the absence of kinetic escalation despite routine PLA warplane incursions and naval patrols. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech emphasizing peace and sovereignty without declaring independence, Beijing issued sharp diplomatic rebukes and deployed coast guard vessels near Taiwan's outlying islands but stopped short of provocative military drills, signaling restraint amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. US arms deliveries, including advanced missiles, bolster Taiwan's defenses, while analysts highlight Beijing's untested amphibious assault capabilities and the logistical hurdles of a cross-strait invasion, with preparations unlikely to mature by 2027. Upcoming US presidential transition and APEC summits could influence cross-strait diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,424,297Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, anchored by the absence of kinetic escalation despite routine PLA warplane incursions and naval patrols. Following Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's October 10 National Day speech emphasizing peace and sovereignty without declaring independence, Beijing issued sharp diplomatic rebukes and deployed coast guard vessels near Taiwan's outlying islands but stopped short of provocative military drills, signaling restraint amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. US arms deliveries, including advanced missiles, bolster Taiwan's defenses, while analysts highlight Beijing's untested amphibious assault capabilities and the logistical hurdles of a cross-strait invasion, with preparations unlikely to mature by 2027. Upcoming US presidential transition and APEC summits could influence cross-strait diplomacy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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