U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China does not plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, underpins trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" on a military clash before then, reflecting preferences for non-kinetic coercion. Recent cross-strait diplomacy reinforces this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping on April 10, echoing "1992 Consensus" rhetoric, followed by Beijing's 10-point integration plan for offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu to foster economic ties ahead of 2028 elections. Gray-zone activities like aircraft incursions and live-fire drills continue without escalation, amid U.S. distractions in the Middle East, sustaining low clash probabilities despite steady PLA modernization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,657,913 Объем
$1,657,913 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,657,913 Объем
$1,657,913 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China does not plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, underpins trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" on a military clash before then, reflecting preferences for non-kinetic coercion. Recent cross-strait diplomacy reinforces this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping on April 10, echoing "1992 Consensus" rhetoric, followed by Beijing's 10-point integration plan for offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu to foster economic ties ahead of 2028 elections. Gray-zone activities like aircraft incursions and live-fire drills continue without escalation, amid U.S. distractions in the Middle East, sustaining low clash probabilities despite steady PLA modernization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$1,657,913Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China does not plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, underpins trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" on a military clash before then, reflecting preferences for non-kinetic coercion. Recent cross-strait diplomacy reinforces this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping on April 10, echoing "1992 Consensus" rhetoric, followed by Beijing's 10-point integration plan for offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu to foster economic ties ahead of 2028 elections. Gray-zone activities like aircraft incursions and live-fire drills continue without escalation, amid U.S. distractions in the Middle East, sustaining low clash probabilities despite steady PLA modernization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,657,913Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, stating China does not plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, underpins trader consensus at 88.5% for "No" on a military clash before then, reflecting preferences for non-kinetic coercion. Recent cross-strait diplomacy reinforces this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping on April 10, echoing "1992 Consensus" rhetoric, followed by Beijing's 10-point integration plan for offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu to foster economic ties ahead of 2028 elections. Gray-zone activities like aircraft incursions and live-fire drills continue without escalation, amid U.S. distractions in the Middle East, sustaining low clash probabilities despite steady PLA modernization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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