US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring sustained coercive measures instead. This underpins the 87.5% trader consensus on "No." Recent developments include December 2025 blockade simulations and ongoing ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and balloon activity through early 2026, alongside April 2026 KMT opposition leader engagement with Beijing that led to resumed direct flights and select imports. No verified large-scale amphibious mobilization or abrupt diplomatic breakdown has occurred, with cross-strait economic channels and seasonal patterns in PLA activity further supporting the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely before the June 2027 cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к 30 июня 2027 года?
Да
$227,270 Объем
$227,270 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
Да
$227,270 Объем
$227,270 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring sustained coercive measures instead. This underpins the 87.5% trader consensus on "No." Recent developments include December 2025 blockade simulations and ongoing ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and balloon activity through early 2026, alongside April 2026 KMT opposition leader engagement with Beijing that led to resumed direct flights and select imports. No verified large-scale amphibious mobilization or abrupt diplomatic breakdown has occurred, with cross-strait economic channels and seasonal patterns in PLA activity further supporting the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely before the June 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Объем
$227,270Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring sustained coercive measures instead. This underpins the 87.5% trader consensus on "No." Recent developments include December 2025 blockade simulations and ongoing ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and balloon activity through early 2026, alongside April 2026 KMT opposition leader engagement with Beijing that led to resumed direct flights and select imports. No verified large-scale amphibious mobilization or abrupt diplomatic breakdown has occurred, with cross-strait economic channels and seasonal patterns in PLA activity further supporting the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely before the June 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$227,270Дата окончания
30 июн. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, favoring sustained coercive measures instead. This underpins the 87.5% trader consensus on "No." Recent developments include December 2025 blockade simulations and ongoing ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols, and balloon activity through early 2026, alongside April 2026 KMT opposition leader engagement with Beijing that led to resumed direct flights and select imports. No verified large-scale amphibious mobilization or abrupt diplomatic breakdown has occurred, with cross-strait economic channels and seasonal patterns in PLA activity further supporting the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely before the June 2027 cutoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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