Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, reflecting contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than kinetic escalation. Recent standoffs at Second Thomas Shoal saw Chinese coast guard vessels ram Philippine boats and use water cannons during a mid-October resupply mission, injuring a Filipino sailor, but Manila's reinforced naval escorts enabled successful subsequent operations without live fire. Diplomatic channels remain active, with bilateral protests exchanged and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks progressing slowly. The Philippines has strengthened mutual defense treaty commitments with the US through joint Balikatan exercises, deterring outright conflict amid Beijing's economic pressures and Taiwan focus. Over the 2.5-year horizon, traders see high barriers to military engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$190,849 Объем
$190,849 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$190,849 Объем
$190,849 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, reflecting contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than kinetic escalation. Recent standoffs at Second Thomas Shoal saw Chinese coast guard vessels ram Philippine boats and use water cannons during a mid-October resupply mission, injuring a Filipino sailor, but Manila's reinforced naval escorts enabled successful subsequent operations without live fire. Diplomatic channels remain active, with bilateral protests exchanged and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks progressing slowly. The Philippines has strengthened mutual defense treaty commitments with the US through joint Balikatan exercises, deterring outright conflict amid Beijing's economic pressures and Taiwan focus. Over the 2.5-year horizon, traders see high barriers to military engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Объем
$190,849Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, reflecting contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than kinetic escalation. Recent standoffs at Second Thomas Shoal saw Chinese coast guard vessels ram Philippine boats and use water cannons during a mid-October resupply mission, injuring a Filipino sailor, but Manila's reinforced naval escorts enabled successful subsequent operations without live fire. Diplomatic channels remain active, with bilateral protests exchanged and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks progressing slowly. The Philippines has strengthened mutual defense treaty commitments with the US through joint Balikatan exercises, deterring outright conflict amid Beijing's economic pressures and Taiwan focus. Over the 2.5-year horizon, traders see high barriers to military engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$190,849Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79.5% for a China-Philippines military clash before 2027, reflecting contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than kinetic escalation. Recent standoffs at Second Thomas Shoal saw Chinese coast guard vessels ram Philippine boats and use water cannons during a mid-October resupply mission, injuring a Filipino sailor, but Manila's reinforced naval escorts enabled successful subsequent operations without live fire. Diplomatic channels remain active, with bilateral protests exchanged and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks progressing slowly. The Philippines has strengthened mutual defense treaty commitments with the US through joint Balikatan exercises, deterring outright conflict amid Beijing's economic pressures and Taiwan focus. Over the 2.5-year horizon, traders see high barriers to military engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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