Trader consensus implies an 86% probability that Zhang Youxia will avoid a prison sentence before 2027, driven by his unchallenged role as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and key ally to Xi Jinping amid ongoing People's Liberation Army (PLA) purges. No official investigations, arrests, or charges have been announced by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) or judicial bodies targeting him, unlike recent high-profile dismissals of figures like former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe for corruption. Zhang's visibility in state media, including recent military inspections and meetings with Xi, reinforces his stability, with anti-corruption efforts focusing on mid-level cadres rather than Politburo-level loyalists. Absent late-breaking scandals or factional shifts, structural barriers to prosecuting top CMC leaders sustain this positioning through the 21st Party Congress horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$90,501 Объем
$90,501 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$90,501 Объем
$90,501 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 86% probability that Zhang Youxia will avoid a prison sentence before 2027, driven by his unchallenged role as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and key ally to Xi Jinping amid ongoing People's Liberation Army (PLA) purges. No official investigations, arrests, or charges have been announced by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) or judicial bodies targeting him, unlike recent high-profile dismissals of figures like former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe for corruption. Zhang's visibility in state media, including recent military inspections and meetings with Xi, reinforces his stability, with anti-corruption efforts focusing on mid-level cadres rather than Politburo-level loyalists. Absent late-breaking scandals or factional shifts, structural barriers to prosecuting top CMC leaders sustain this positioning through the 21st Party Congress horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Объем
$90,501Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 86% probability that Zhang Youxia will avoid a prison sentence before 2027, driven by his unchallenged role as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and key ally to Xi Jinping amid ongoing People's Liberation Army (PLA) purges. No official investigations, arrests, or charges have been announced by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) or judicial bodies targeting him, unlike recent high-profile dismissals of figures like former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe for corruption. Zhang's visibility in state media, including recent military inspections and meetings with Xi, reinforces his stability, with anti-corruption efforts focusing on mid-level cadres rather than Politburo-level loyalists. Absent late-breaking scandals or factional shifts, structural barriers to prosecuting top CMC leaders sustain this positioning through the 21st Party Congress horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$90,501Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 86% probability that Zhang Youxia will avoid a prison sentence before 2027, driven by his unchallenged role as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and key ally to Xi Jinping amid ongoing People's Liberation Army (PLA) purges. No official investigations, arrests, or charges have been announced by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) or judicial bodies targeting him, unlike recent high-profile dismissals of figures like former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe for corruption. Zhang's visibility in state media, including recent military inspections and meetings with Xi, reinforces his stability, with anti-corruption efforts focusing on mid-level cadres rather than Politburo-level loyalists. Absent late-breaking scandals or factional shifts, structural barriers to prosecuting top CMC leaders sustain this positioning through the 21st Party Congress horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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