US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including over 600 strikes on ballistic missile sites since late February, while Iran has launched retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional forces, injuring troops as recently as March 27. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 28 that the campaign could conclude in weeks without ground troops, and Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, yet no ceasefire is in place amid threats over the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus prices "through April 30" at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in diplomatic breakthroughs despite de-escalation signals, with dispersed bets on mid-April end dates signaling potential for prolonged engagements absent verified negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action through April 30 37%
April 3 7%
April 4 7%
April 7 7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
8%
April 1
4%
April 2
5%
April 3
7%
April 4
7%
April 5
6%
April 6
5%
April 7
7%
April 8
6%
April 9
8%
April 10
8%
April 11
8%
April 12
8%
April 13
5%
April 14
8%
April 15
8%
April 16
8%
April 17
8%
April 18
8%
April 19
8%
April 20
8%
April 21
8%
April 22
8%
April 23
8%
April 24
8%
April 25
8%
April 26
8%
April 27
8%
April 28
8%
April 29
8%
April 30
8%
Military action through April 30
37%
Military action through April 30 37%
April 3 7%
April 4 7%
April 7 7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$32 Объем
8%
April 1
$114 Объем
4%
April 2
$10 Объем
5%
April 3
$10 Объем
7%
April 4
$10 Объем
7%
April 5
$10 Объем
6%
April 6
$151 Объем
5%
April 7
$10 Объем
7%
April 8
$10 Объем
6%
April 9
$10 Объем
8%
April 10
$10 Объем
8%
April 11
$10 Объем
8%
April 12
$10 Объем
8%
April 13
$164 Объем
5%
April 14
$10 Объем
8%
April 15
$10 Объем
8%
April 16
$10 Объем
8%
April 17
$10 Объем
8%
April 18
$10 Объем
8%
April 19
$10 Объем
8%
April 20
$10 Объем
8%
April 21
$10 Объем
8%
April 22
$10 Объем
8%
April 23
$10 Объем
8%
April 24
$10 Объем
8%
April 25
$10 Объем
8%
April 26
$10 Объем
8%
April 27
$10 Объем
8%
April 28
$10 Объем
8%
April 29
$10 Объем
8%
April 30
$10 Объем
8%
Military action through April 30
$135 Объем
37%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including over 600 strikes on ballistic missile sites since late February, while Iran has launched retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional forces, injuring troops as recently as March 27. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 28 that the campaign could conclude in weeks without ground troops, and Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, yet no ceasefire is in place amid threats over the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus prices "through April 30" at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in diplomatic breakthroughs despite de-escalation signals, with dispersed bets on mid-April end dates signaling potential for prolonged engagements absent verified negotiations.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Объем
$858Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including over 600 strikes on ballistic missile sites since late February, while Iran has launched retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional forces, injuring troops as recently as March 27. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 28 that the campaign could conclude in weeks without ground troops, and Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, yet no ceasefire is in place amid threats over the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus prices "through April 30" at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in diplomatic breakthroughs despite de-escalation signals, with dispersed bets on mid-April end dates signaling potential for prolonged engagements absent verified negotiations.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$858Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including over 600 strikes on ballistic missile sites since late February, while Iran has launched retaliatory missiles and drones at Israel and US regional forces, injuring troops as recently as March 27. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 28 that the campaign could conclude in weeks without ground troops, and Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, yet no ceasefire is in place amid threats over the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus prices "through April 30" at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty in diplomatic breakthroughs despite de-escalation signals, with dispersed bets on mid-April end dates signaling potential for prolonged engagements absent verified negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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