Traders' strong consensus against Pakistan launching military action targeting Kabul by March 31 reflects the absence of official threats or mobilizations aimed at Afghanistan's capital, despite heightened border tensions. Recent Pakistani airstrikes on December 24 hit TTP militant sites in Khost and Paktika provinces—far from Kabul—with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denying broader offensive plans. Taliban retaliation threats remain rhetorical, while diplomatic channels via China and intelligence talks persist to curb cross-border militancy. No verified troop buildups or policy shifts signal Kabul escalation, aligning with historical patterns of localized responses over full-scale urban strikes, keeping "No" odds firm at 79.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?
Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Объем
$8,299Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$8,299Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' strong consensus against Pakistan launching military action targeting Kabul by March 31 reflects the absence of official threats or mobilizations aimed at Afghanistan's capital, despite heightened border tensions. Recent Pakistani airstrikes on December 24 hit TTP militant sites in Khost and Paktika provinces—far from Kabul—with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denying broader offensive plans. Taliban retaliation threats remain rhetorical, while diplomatic channels via China and intelligence talks persist to curb cross-border militancy. No verified troop buildups or policy shifts signal Kabul escalation, aligning with historical patterns of localized responses over full-scale urban strikes, keeping "No" odds firm at 79.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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