US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites and air defenses, on February 28, 2026, marking the start of ongoing hostilities now in their sixth week. The most recent escalation occurred within the last day, as Iran downed a US F-15 jet over its territory, leaving one airman missing and triggering search-and-rescue operations amid Tehran's rejection of temporary ceasefires in favor of permanent de-escalation guarantees. Continued strikes, such as those reported in southwestern Iran, and Iranian missile retaliations against US bases in the region underscore persistent military action, with no diplomatic breakthrough despite calls for negotiations. Gulf states face pressure from proxy attacks, while upcoming multilateral talks could influence trajectories, though trader consensus reflects prolonged conflict risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$334,308 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
15 апреля
6%
30 апреля
21%
31 мая
57%
30 июня
70%
$334,308 Объем
15 апреля
$36,742 Объем
6%
30 апреля
$24,875 Объем
21%
31 мая
$12,949 Объем
57%
30 июня
$11,510 Объем
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites and air defenses, on February 28, 2026, marking the start of ongoing hostilities now in their sixth week. The most recent escalation occurred within the last day, as Iran downed a US F-15 jet over its territory, leaving one airman missing and triggering search-and-rescue operations amid Tehran's rejection of temporary ceasefires in favor of permanent de-escalation guarantees. Continued strikes, such as those reported in southwestern Iran, and Iranian missile retaliations against US bases in the region underscore persistent military action, with no diplomatic breakthrough despite calls for negotiations. Gulf states face pressure from proxy attacks, while upcoming multilateral talks could influence trajectories, though trader consensus reflects prolonged conflict risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Объем
$334,308Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites and air defenses, on February 28, 2026, marking the start of ongoing hostilities now in their sixth week. The most recent escalation occurred within the last day, as Iran downed a US F-15 jet over its territory, leaving one airman missing and triggering search-and-rescue operations amid Tehran's rejection of temporary ceasefires in favor of permanent de-escalation guarantees. Continued strikes, such as those reported in southwestern Iran, and Iranian missile retaliations against US bases in the region underscore persistent military action, with no diplomatic breakthrough despite calls for negotiations. Gulf states face pressure from proxy attacks, while upcoming multilateral talks could influence trajectories, though trader consensus reflects prolonged conflict risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$334,308Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including ballistic missile sites and air defenses, on February 28, 2026, marking the start of ongoing hostilities now in their sixth week. The most recent escalation occurred within the last day, as Iran downed a US F-15 jet over its territory, leaving one airman missing and triggering search-and-rescue operations amid Tehran's rejection of temporary ceasefires in favor of permanent de-escalation guarantees. Continued strikes, such as those reported in southwestern Iran, and Iranian missile retaliations against US bases in the region underscore persistent military action, with no diplomatic breakthrough despite calls for negotiations. Gulf states face pressure from proxy attacks, while upcoming multilateral talks could influence trajectories, though trader consensus reflects prolonged conflict risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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