Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability against a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs since Kazakhstan's accession on November 6, 2025—the first expansion under President Trump's second term. Ongoing regional tensions, including the recent escalation into war with Iran, have stalled momentum, as highlighted in February analyses confirming security preconditions for further normalizations remain unmet. While Trump urged Saudi Arabia to join during a March speech amid these conflicts, Riyadh has shown no public commitment, echoing prior conditions tied to Palestinian statehood. With under three months left and no scheduled summits or negotiations announced, traders view structural barriers and geopolitical risks as outweighing expansion prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability against a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs since Kazakhstan's accession on November 6, 2025—the first expansion under President Trump's second term. Ongoing regional tensions, including the recent escalation into war with Iran, have stalled momentum, as highlighted in February analyses confirming security preconditions for further normalizations remain unmet. While Trump urged Saudi Arabia to join during a March speech amid these conflicts, Riyadh has shown no public commitment, echoing prior conditions tied to Palestinian statehood. With under three months left and no scheduled summits or negotiations announced, traders view structural barriers and geopolitical risks as outweighing expansion prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$139Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability against a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs since Kazakhstan's accession on November 6, 2025—the first expansion under President Trump's second term. Ongoing regional tensions, including the recent escalation into war with Iran, have stalled momentum, as highlighted in February analyses confirming security preconditions for further normalizations remain unmet. While Trump urged Saudi Arabia to join during a March speech amid these conflicts, Riyadh has shown no public commitment, echoing prior conditions tied to Palestinian statehood. With under three months left and no scheduled summits or negotiations announced, traders view structural barriers and geopolitical risks as outweighing expansion prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$139Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80% implied probability against a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs since Kazakhstan's accession on November 6, 2025—the first expansion under President Trump's second term. Ongoing regional tensions, including the recent escalation into war with Iran, have stalled momentum, as highlighted in February analyses confirming security preconditions for further normalizations remain unmet. While Trump urged Saudi Arabia to join during a March speech amid these conflicts, Riyadh has shown no public commitment, echoing prior conditions tied to Palestinian statehood. With under three months left and no scheduled summits or negotiations announced, traders view structural barriers and geopolitical risks as outweighing expansion prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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