Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing military escalation. Over the past week, President Trump claimed progress after sending a 15-point proposal demanding Iran's nuclear dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and missile curbs, prompting a five-day pause on US strikes against energy infrastructure—but Iran denied talks, dismissed the plan, and vowed retaliation while firing missiles at Israel. Earlier February Geneva rounds, mediated by Oman, ended without breakthroughs on US insistence for zero enrichment and IAEA monitoring versus Tehran's sanctions relief demands. With continued airstrikes on military targets, no high-level meetings scheduled, and deep divides persisting, traders see formidable barriers to agreement in the remaining month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 апреля?
Ядерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 апреля?
Да
$120,521 Объем
$120,521 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
$120,521 Объем
$120,521 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing military escalation. Over the past week, President Trump claimed progress after sending a 15-point proposal demanding Iran's nuclear dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and missile curbs, prompting a five-day pause on US strikes against energy infrastructure—but Iran denied talks, dismissed the plan, and vowed retaliation while firing missiles at Israel. Earlier February Geneva rounds, mediated by Oman, ended without breakthroughs on US insistence for zero enrichment and IAEA monitoring versus Tehran's sanctions relief demands. With continued airstrikes on military targets, no high-level meetings scheduled, and deep divides persisting, traders see formidable barriers to agreement in the remaining month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$120,521Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing military escalation. Over the past week, President Trump claimed progress after sending a 15-point proposal demanding Iran's nuclear dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and missile curbs, prompting a five-day pause on US strikes against energy infrastructure—but Iran denied talks, dismissed the plan, and vowed retaliation while firing missiles at Israel. Earlier February Geneva rounds, mediated by Oman, ended without breakthroughs on US insistence for zero enrichment and IAEA monitoring versus Tehran's sanctions relief demands. With continued airstrikes on military targets, no high-level meetings scheduled, and deep divides persisting, traders see formidable barriers to agreement in the remaining month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$120,521Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing military escalation. Over the past week, President Trump claimed progress after sending a 15-point proposal demanding Iran's nuclear dismantlement, cessation of proxy support, and missile curbs, prompting a five-day pause on US strikes against energy infrastructure—but Iran denied talks, dismissed the plan, and vowed retaliation while firing missiles at Israel. Earlier February Geneva rounds, mediated by Oman, ended without breakthroughs on US insistence for zero enrichment and IAEA monitoring versus Tehran's sanctions relief demands. With continued airstrikes on military targets, no high-level meetings scheduled, and deep divides persisting, traders see formidable barriers to agreement in the remaining month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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