Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, with "No" at 77.5%, driven by escalating military tensions overshadowing diplomacy. On April 3, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter jet over its territory amid ongoing airstrikes that began February 28, prompting President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding Iran "make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz" within 48 hours or face severe retaliation. Indirect talks in Geneva and Oman stalled after initial progress, as Iran rejected a US 15-point plan requiring nuclear dismantling for sanctions relief, insisting on war reparations and Hormuz control. IAEA-verified setbacks to Iran's program from prior strikes have not bridged distrust, with Iranian officials deeming further negotiations unrealistic under duress. The Hormuz blockade, spiking oil prices, reinforces barriers to agreement absent de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 июня?
Ядерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 июня?
Да
$968,580 Объем
$968,580 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$968,580 Объем
$968,580 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, with "No" at 77.5%, driven by escalating military tensions overshadowing diplomacy. On April 3, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter jet over its territory amid ongoing airstrikes that began February 28, prompting President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding Iran "make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz" within 48 hours or face severe retaliation. Indirect talks in Geneva and Oman stalled after initial progress, as Iran rejected a US 15-point plan requiring nuclear dismantling for sanctions relief, insisting on war reparations and Hormuz control. IAEA-verified setbacks to Iran's program from prior strikes have not bridged distrust, with Iranian officials deeming further negotiations unrealistic under duress. The Hormuz blockade, spiking oil prices, reinforces barriers to agreement absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$968,580Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, with "No" at 77.5%, driven by escalating military tensions overshadowing diplomacy. On April 3, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter jet over its territory amid ongoing airstrikes that began February 28, prompting President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding Iran "make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz" within 48 hours or face severe retaliation. Indirect talks in Geneva and Oman stalled after initial progress, as Iran rejected a US 15-point plan requiring nuclear dismantling for sanctions relief, insisting on war reparations and Hormuz control. IAEA-verified setbacks to Iran's program from prior strikes have not bridged distrust, with Iranian officials deeming further negotiations unrealistic under duress. The Hormuz blockade, spiking oil prices, reinforces barriers to agreement absent de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$968,580Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, with "No" at 77.5%, driven by escalating military tensions overshadowing diplomacy. On April 3, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter jet over its territory amid ongoing airstrikes that began February 28, prompting President Trump's April 4 ultimatum demanding Iran "make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz" within 48 hours or face severe retaliation. Indirect talks in Geneva and Oman stalled after initial progress, as Iran rejected a US 15-point plan requiring nuclear dismantling for sanctions relief, insisting on war reparations and Hormuz control. IAEA-verified setbacks to Iran's program from prior strikes have not bridged distrust, with Iranian officials deeming further negotiations unrealistic under duress. The Hormuz blockade, spiking oil prices, reinforces barriers to agreement absent de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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