Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 июня?
Ядерная сделка между США и Ираном к 30 июня?
Да
$970,440 Объем
$970,440 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$970,440 Объем
$970,440 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$970,440Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Объем
$970,440Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military confrontation under President Trump's Operation Epic Fury has shattered prospects for a nuclear deal by June 30, driving trader consensus to an 78.5% implied probability on "No." Indirect talks mediated by Oman collapsed on February 28 after US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials amid reported progress on uranium limits and IAEA verification, eroding trust to "zero" per Iranian statements. Recent April exchanges—including strikes on Iranian negotiators, F-15 losses, and Hormuz disruptions—prompt Trump claims of "major agreement points" via Pakistan channels, but Tehran insists airstrikes halt first, deeming talks "impossible." With oil shocks and attrition risks mounting, escalation overshadows diplomacy absent de-escalation breakthroughs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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