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Политика·Иран

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Market icon
Политика·Иран

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

43% вероятность
Polymarket

$87,601 Объем

43% вероятность
Polymarket

$87,601 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability against a US-Iran ceasefire before President Trump's May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict now over a month old. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan—including demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—and dismissed a 48-hour truce offer on April 2, with mediators reporting a dead-end as of April 3. Tehran countered Trump's ultimatums, vowing no surrender while launching attacks, as US and Israeli strikes continue on Iranian infrastructure. Escalating tensions, including a downed US jet and missing pilot, have narrowed the diplomacy window, outweighing earlier negotiation signals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China.

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.

If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time.

1. Trump visits China

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2. US x Iran ceasefire

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$87,601
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability against a US-Iran ceasefire before President Trump's May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, reflecting stalled diplomatic efforts amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict now over a month old. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan—including demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—and dismissed a 48-hour truce offer on April 2, with mediators reporting a dead-end as of April 3. Tehran countered Trump's ultimatums, vowing no surrender while launching attacks, as US and Israeli strikes continue on Iranian infrastructure. Escalating tensions, including a downed US jet and missing pilot, have narrowed the diplomacy window, outweighing earlier negotiation signals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China.

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.

If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time.

1. Trump visits China

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2. US x Iran ceasefire

For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$87,601
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50. If the qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and Trump's qualifying visit to China occur on the same calendar date, this market will resolve based on which event occurred earlier in ET time. 1. Trump visits China For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the People's Republic of China. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump's visit to China will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 2. US x Iran ceasefire For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before Trump visits China, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether or when the ceasefire officially takes effect. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. The primary resolution source for whether a qualifying ceasefire agreement has been reached will be official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 43% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 43¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 43%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $87.6K с момента запуска рынка Mar 13, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущая вероятность для «US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?» составляет 43% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 43%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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