Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed on February 28, 2026, in initial US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the ongoing war, prompting senior clerics to appoint his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. This hardline transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), preserved regime continuity despite domestic divisions and external threats. Recent reports from a Russian envoy on March 31 confirm Mojtaba remains in Iran, ensconced in a bunker to avoid public appearances amid continued strikes. No subsequent leadership changes have materialized, though war escalation, potential IRGC reprisals, or diplomatic overtures could influence regime stability before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$5,757,908 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
31 марта
<1%
30 апреля
13%
31 мая
20%
30 июня
27%
31 декабря
37%
$5,757,908 Объем
31 марта
$3,228,559 Объем
<1%
30 апреля
$1,455,809 Объем
13%
31 мая
$53,762 Объем
20%
30 июня
$33,994 Объем
27%
31 декабря
$986,086 Объем
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed on February 28, 2026, in initial US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the ongoing war, prompting senior clerics to appoint his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. This hardline transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), preserved regime continuity despite domestic divisions and external threats. Recent reports from a Russian envoy on March 31 confirm Mojtaba remains in Iran, ensconced in a bunker to avoid public appearances amid continued strikes. No subsequent leadership changes have materialized, though war escalation, potential IRGC reprisals, or diplomatic overtures could influence regime stability before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Объем
$5,757,908Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Окно спора
Окончательный
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed on February 28, 2026, in initial US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the ongoing war, prompting senior clerics to appoint his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. This hardline transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), preserved regime continuity despite domestic divisions and external threats. Recent reports from a Russian envoy on March 31 confirm Mojtaba remains in Iran, ensconced in a bunker to avoid public appearances amid continued strikes. No subsequent leadership changes have materialized, though war escalation, potential IRGC reprisals, or diplomatic overtures could influence regime stability before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,757,908Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Окно спора
Окончательный
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed on February 28, 2026, in initial US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the ongoing war, prompting senior clerics to appoint his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. This hardline transition, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), preserved regime continuity despite domestic divisions and external threats. Recent reports from a Russian envoy on March 31 confirm Mojtaba remains in Iran, ensconced in a bunker to avoid public appearances amid continued strikes. No subsequent leadership changes have materialized, though war escalation, potential IRGC reprisals, or diplomatic overtures could influence regime stability before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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