Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$5,637,480 Объем
31 марта
1%
30 апреля
12%
31 мая
18%
30 июня
25%
31 декабря
36%
$5,637,480 Объем
31 марта
1%
30 апреля
12%
31 мая
18%
30 июня
25%
31 декабря
36%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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