Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$5,637,480 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
31 марта
1%
30 апреля
12%
31 мая
18%
30 июня
25%
31 декабря
36%
$5,637,480 Объем
31 марта
$3,176,866 Объем
1%
30 апреля
$1,435,053 Объем
12%
31 мая
$52,356 Объем
18%
30 июня
$27,652 Объем
25%
31 декабря
$950,723 Объем
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Объем
$5,637,480Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,637,480Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026—confirmed by Iranian state media—triggered a rapid succession process, with the Assembly of Experts appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as new Supreme Leader on March 9 amid Revolutionary Guards influence and an interim council. Recent intelligence reports and media accounts from late March claim Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in follow-up strikes, including a possible coma, leg amputation, and unresponsiveness, prompting speculation of further leadership instability without official confirmation. Ongoing regional escalation, diplomatic tensions, and opaque clerical deliberations continue to shape trader assessments of near-term transitions in Iran's paramount religious-political authority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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