Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic normalizing by May 31, driven by severe ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran escalation since early March. Iranian threats, vessel attacks, and GPS jamming have slashed daily crossings to around 22 from a pre-crisis average of over 100—an 87% collapse as of April 2—prompting major shipping lines like Maersk to suspend transits, anchor hundreds of tankers outside the strait, and reroute globally amid soaring war-risk insurance. No de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ceasefire talks have emerged in the past 30 days, with loitering vessels and AIS spoofing underscoring persistent risks; normalization would require sustained safe passage at prior volumes, unlikely without military drawdown or negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$88,366 Объем
$88,366 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
$88,366 Объем
$88,366 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic normalizing by May 31, driven by severe ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran escalation since early March. Iranian threats, vessel attacks, and GPS jamming have slashed daily crossings to around 22 from a pre-crisis average of over 100—an 87% collapse as of April 2—prompting major shipping lines like Maersk to suspend transits, anchor hundreds of tankers outside the strait, and reroute globally amid soaring war-risk insurance. No de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ceasefire talks have emerged in the past 30 days, with loitering vessels and AIS spoofing underscoring persistent risks; normalization would require sustained safe passage at prior volumes, unlikely without military drawdown or negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Объем
$88,366Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic normalizing by May 31, driven by severe ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran escalation since early March. Iranian threats, vessel attacks, and GPS jamming have slashed daily crossings to around 22 from a pre-crisis average of over 100—an 87% collapse as of April 2—prompting major shipping lines like Maersk to suspend transits, anchor hundreds of tankers outside the strait, and reroute globally amid soaring war-risk insurance. No de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ceasefire talks have emerged in the past 30 days, with loitering vessels and AIS spoofing underscoring persistent risks; normalization would require sustained safe passage at prior volumes, unlikely without military drawdown or negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$88,564Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic normalizing by May 31, driven by severe ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran escalation since early March. Iranian threats, vessel attacks, and GPS jamming have slashed daily crossings to around 22 from a pre-crisis average of over 100—an 87% collapse as of April 2—prompting major shipping lines like Maersk to suspend transits, anchor hundreds of tankers outside the strait, and reroute globally amid soaring war-risk insurance. No de-escalation signals, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ceasefire talks have emerged in the past 30 days, with loitering vessels and AIS spoofing underscoring persistent risks; normalization would require sustained safe passage at prior volumes, unlikely without military drawdown or negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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