Stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in late February 2026, described as the "most intense" yet, ended without agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment or stockpile export, driving trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of "No" by May 31. IAEA reports from February highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—alongside over 9,000 kg total enriched uranium, underscoring unresolved proliferation risks amid clashing red lines on sanctions relief and enrichment caps. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, demanded relinquishment of near-weapons-grade material, but diplomatic setbacks, historical negotiation failures, and reports of military planning have dimmed prospects for voluntary handover, with no scheduled talks imminent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
НОВОЕ
$12,701 Объем
НОВОЕ
$12,701 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
$12,701 Объем
НОВОЕ
$12,701 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in late February 2026, described as the "most intense" yet, ended without agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment or stockpile export, driving trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of "No" by May 31. IAEA reports from February highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—alongside over 9,000 kg total enriched uranium, underscoring unresolved proliferation risks amid clashing red lines on sanctions relief and enrichment caps. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, demanded relinquishment of near-weapons-grade material, but diplomatic setbacks, historical negotiation failures, and reports of military planning have dimmed prospects for voluntary handover, with no scheduled talks imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$12,701Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in late February 2026, described as the "most intense" yet, ended without agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment or stockpile export, driving trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of "No" by May 31. IAEA reports from February highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—alongside over 9,000 kg total enriched uranium, underscoring unresolved proliferation risks amid clashing red lines on sanctions relief and enrichment caps. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, demanded relinquishment of near-weapons-grade material, but diplomatic setbacks, historical negotiation failures, and reports of military planning have dimmed prospects for voluntary handover, with no scheduled talks imminent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$12,701Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in late February 2026, described as the "most intense" yet, ended without agreement on Iran's uranium enrichment or stockpile export, driving trader consensus toward an 81.5% implied probability of "No" by May 31. IAEA reports from February highlighted Iran's 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—alongside over 9,000 kg total enriched uranium, underscoring unresolved proliferation risks amid clashing red lines on sanctions relief and enrichment caps. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, demanded relinquishment of near-weapons-grade material, but diplomatic setbacks, historical negotiation failures, and reports of military planning have dimmed prospects for voluntary handover, with no scheduled talks imminent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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