President Trump's prior Senate acquittals on two impeachment articles, combined with current Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drive the 82.5% trader consensus implying he will not leave office before 2027 via resignation, impeachment conviction, 25th Amendment invocation, or other means. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on March 1 sparked Democratic calls for impeachment over escalation risks and introduced resolutions, but procedural hurdles and lack of bipartisan support have stalled momentum. With 2026 midterms seven months away, traders price in low odds of Democrats securing the two-thirds Senate threshold for removal even if they regain the House.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$5,145,774 Объем
$5,145,774 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$5,145,774 Объем
$5,145,774 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's prior Senate acquittals on two impeachment articles, combined with current Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drive the 82.5% trader consensus implying he will not leave office before 2027 via resignation, impeachment conviction, 25th Amendment invocation, or other means. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on March 1 sparked Democratic calls for impeachment over escalation risks and introduced resolutions, but procedural hurdles and lack of bipartisan support have stalled momentum. With 2026 midterms seven months away, traders price in low odds of Democrats securing the two-thirds Senate threshold for removal even if they regain the House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$5,145,774Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's prior Senate acquittals on two impeachment articles, combined with current Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drive the 82.5% trader consensus implying he will not leave office before 2027 via resignation, impeachment conviction, 25th Amendment invocation, or other means. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on March 1 sparked Democratic calls for impeachment over escalation risks and introduced resolutions, but procedural hurdles and lack of bipartisan support have stalled momentum. With 2026 midterms seven months away, traders price in low odds of Democrats securing the two-thirds Senate threshold for removal even if they regain the House.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,145,774Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's prior Senate acquittals on two impeachment articles, combined with current Republican majorities in the House and Senate, drive the 82.5% trader consensus implying he will not leave office before 2027 via resignation, impeachment conviction, 25th Amendment invocation, or other means. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on March 1 sparked Democratic calls for impeachment over escalation risks and introduced resolutions, but procedural hurdles and lack of bipartisan support have stalled momentum. With 2026 midterms seven months away, traders price in low odds of Democrats securing the two-thirds Senate threshold for removal even if they regain the House.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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