Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office through 2026, driven by the absence of viable removal mechanisms amid ongoing Republican majorities in Congress ahead of November 2026 midterms. Recent House Democratic calls for impeachment—spurred by U.S.-Iran tensions, including postponed airstrikes on March 23 and rhetoric criticized as threats to judges—have gained no traction, with reports confirming Dems are proceeding cautiously without sufficient GOP defections for House passage or Senate conviction. Routine administration moves, such as firing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5 and minor health disclosures like a treated neck rash, signal operational stability rather than crisis, underscoring structural barriers like the two-thirds Senate threshold that historically protect incumbents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$5,154,790 Объем
$5,154,790 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$5,154,790 Объем
$5,154,790 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office through 2026, driven by the absence of viable removal mechanisms amid ongoing Republican majorities in Congress ahead of November 2026 midterms. Recent House Democratic calls for impeachment—spurred by U.S.-Iran tensions, including postponed airstrikes on March 23 and rhetoric criticized as threats to judges—have gained no traction, with reports confirming Dems are proceeding cautiously without sufficient GOP defections for House passage or Senate conviction. Routine administration moves, such as firing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5 and minor health disclosures like a treated neck rash, signal operational stability rather than crisis, underscoring structural barriers like the two-thirds Senate threshold that historically protect incumbents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$5,154,790Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office through 2026, driven by the absence of viable removal mechanisms amid ongoing Republican majorities in Congress ahead of November 2026 midterms. Recent House Democratic calls for impeachment—spurred by U.S.-Iran tensions, including postponed airstrikes on March 23 and rhetoric criticized as threats to judges—have gained no traction, with reports confirming Dems are proceeding cautiously without sufficient GOP defections for House passage or Senate conviction. Routine administration moves, such as firing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5 and minor health disclosures like a treated neck rash, signal operational stability rather than crisis, underscoring structural barriers like the two-thirds Senate threshold that historically protect incumbents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,154,790Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability that President Trump will remain in office through 2026, driven by the absence of viable removal mechanisms amid ongoing Republican majorities in Congress ahead of November 2026 midterms. Recent House Democratic calls for impeachment—spurred by U.S.-Iran tensions, including postponed airstrikes on March 23 and rhetoric criticized as threats to judges—have gained no traction, with reports confirming Dems are proceeding cautiously without sufficient GOP defections for House passage or Senate conviction. Routine administration moves, such as firing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5 and minor health disclosures like a treated neck rash, signal operational stability rather than crisis, underscoring structural barriers like the two-thirds Senate threshold that historically protect incumbents.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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