Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance President Trump completes his term through 2026, driven by formidable barriers to early removal including the need for a two-thirds Senate supermajority for impeachment conviction—unattainable amid Republican control—and no invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent House Democratic resolutions for impeachment, filed in April 2026 following foreign policy disputes like a failed Iran peace deal, gained no traction amid party divisions over midterm strategy. Health rumors alleging hospitalization were swiftly debunked by the White House on April 4. With 2026 midterms looming in November, a House flip could prompt articles of impeachment, but Senate conviction remains improbable before year-end, aligning with historical base rates where no president has been forcibly removed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$8,329,739 Объем
$8,329,739 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$8,329,739 Объем
$8,329,739 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance President Trump completes his term through 2026, driven by formidable barriers to early removal including the need for a two-thirds Senate supermajority for impeachment conviction—unattainable amid Republican control—and no invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent House Democratic resolutions for impeachment, filed in April 2026 following foreign policy disputes like a failed Iran peace deal, gained no traction amid party divisions over midterm strategy. Health rumors alleging hospitalization were swiftly debunked by the White House on April 4. With 2026 midterms looming in November, a House flip could prompt articles of impeachment, but Senate conviction remains improbable before year-end, aligning with historical base rates where no president has been forcibly removed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$8,329,739Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance President Trump completes his term through 2026, driven by formidable barriers to early removal including the need for a two-thirds Senate supermajority for impeachment conviction—unattainable amid Republican control—and no invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent House Democratic resolutions for impeachment, filed in April 2026 following foreign policy disputes like a failed Iran peace deal, gained no traction amid party divisions over midterm strategy. Health rumors alleging hospitalization were swiftly debunked by the White House on April 4. With 2026 midterms looming in November, a House flip could prompt articles of impeachment, but Senate conviction remains improbable before year-end, aligning with historical base rates where no president has been forcibly removed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$8,329,739Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance President Trump completes his term through 2026, driven by formidable barriers to early removal including the need for a two-thirds Senate supermajority for impeachment conviction—unattainable amid Republican control—and no invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent House Democratic resolutions for impeachment, filed in April 2026 following foreign policy disputes like a failed Iran peace deal, gained no traction amid party divisions over midterm strategy. Health rumors alleging hospitalization were swiftly debunked by the White House on April 4. With 2026 midterms looming in November, a House flip could prompt articles of impeachment, but Senate conviction remains improbable before year-end, aligning with historical base rates where no president has been forcibly removed.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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