Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, at 94.5% implied probability on "No," driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal—requiring House impeachment and two-thirds Senate conviction amid Republican majorities in both chambers. Recent House Democratic resolutions targeting Trump over Iran airstrikes have gained no traction, stalling procedural votes as midterms loom in November. No verified health issues, resignation signals, or 25th Amendment invocations have emerged in the past 30 days; instead, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget, underscoring active governance. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections could shift odds, but none materialize presently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$1,997,806 Объем
$1,997,806 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,997,806 Объем
$1,997,806 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, at 94.5% implied probability on "No," driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal—requiring House impeachment and two-thirds Senate conviction amid Republican majorities in both chambers. Recent House Democratic resolutions targeting Trump over Iran airstrikes have gained no traction, stalling procedural votes as midterms loom in November. No verified health issues, resignation signals, or 25th Amendment invocations have emerged in the past 30 days; instead, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget, underscoring active governance. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections could shift odds, but none materialize presently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Объем
$1,997,806Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, at 94.5% implied probability on "No," driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal—requiring House impeachment and two-thirds Senate conviction amid Republican majorities in both chambers. Recent House Democratic resolutions targeting Trump over Iran airstrikes have gained no traction, stalling procedural votes as midterms loom in November. No verified health issues, resignation signals, or 25th Amendment invocations have emerged in the past 30 days; instead, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget, underscoring active governance. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections could shift odds, but none materialize presently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,998,861Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, at 94.5% implied probability on "No," driven by steep constitutional barriers to early removal—requiring House impeachment and two-thirds Senate conviction amid Republican majorities in both chambers. Recent House Democratic resolutions targeting Trump over Iran airstrikes have gained no traction, stalling procedural votes as midterms loom in November. No verified health issues, resignation signals, or 25th Amendment invocations have emerged in the past 30 days; instead, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget, underscoring active governance. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections could shift odds, but none materialize presently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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