Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following the US-Iran war that erupted in February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on prospects for renewed high-level diplomacy after marathon Islamabad talks on April 11-12 ended without agreement. Led by US Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner against Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the session made limited progress on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access before collapsing over mutual distrust. Pakistani mediators visited Tehran on April 16 amid Iranian signals of de-escalation by declaring the strait open, fueling optimism for a second round before the April 21 truce deadline, though Iran's deputy foreign minister confirmed no date set as of April 18. Upcoming shuttle diplomacy could tip outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$297,208 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Дональд Трамп
11%
Джей Ди Ванс
61%
Марко Рубио
13%
Джаред Кушнер
63%
Стив Уиткофф
72%
$297,208 Объем
Дональд Трамп
$235,164 Объем
11%
Джей Ди Ванс
$24,523 Объем
61%
Марко Рубио
$14,260 Объем
13%
Джаред Кушнер
$11,786 Объем
63%
Стив Уиткофф
$11,475 Объем
72%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following the US-Iran war that erupted in February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on prospects for renewed high-level diplomacy after marathon Islamabad talks on April 11-12 ended without agreement. Led by US Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner against Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the session made limited progress on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access before collapsing over mutual distrust. Pakistani mediators visited Tehran on April 16 amid Iranian signals of de-escalation by declaring the strait open, fueling optimism for a second round before the April 21 truce deadline, though Iran's deputy foreign minister confirmed no date set as of April 18. Upcoming shuttle diplomacy could tip outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Объем
$297,208Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following the US-Iran war that erupted in February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on prospects for renewed high-level diplomacy after marathon Islamabad talks on April 11-12 ended without agreement. Led by US Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner against Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the session made limited progress on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access before collapsing over mutual distrust. Pakistani mediators visited Tehran on April 16 amid Iranian signals of de-escalation by declaring the strait open, fueling optimism for a second round before the April 21 truce deadline, though Iran's deputy foreign minister confirmed no date set as of April 18. Upcoming shuttle diplomacy could tip outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$297,208Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following the US-Iran war that erupted in February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on prospects for renewed high-level diplomacy after marathon Islamabad talks on April 11-12 ended without agreement. Led by US Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner against Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the session made limited progress on nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access before collapsing over mutual distrust. Pakistani mediators visited Tehran on April 16 amid Iranian signals of de-escalation by declaring the strait open, fueling optimism for a second round before the April 21 truce deadline, though Iran's deputy foreign minister confirmed no date set as of April 18. Upcoming shuttle diplomacy could tip outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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