Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, held April 16 to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, drives trader consensus at 96.7% odds for a 20-25% margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway. The Democratic-leaning North Jersey district, bolstered by post-2020 redistricting and Sherrill's strong incumbency legacy, saw Mejia secure approximately 62% of the vote in final tallies reported by the New Jersey Globe, yielding a nearly 20-point edge—a 12-point overperformance versus 2024 presidential results. Progressive organizer Mejia overcame a competitive Democratic primary and pocketed resistance in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston over foreign policy stances. Final county certifications and audits, completed by late April, cement this outcome barring improbable provisional ballot shifts or clerical errors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMejia 20-25% 96.9%
Mejia <20% 1.7%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,079 Объем
$26,079 Объем
16 апр. 2026 г.
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
97%
Mejia <20%
2%
Other
1%
Mejia 20-25% 96.9%
Mejia <20% 1.7%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,079 Объем
$26,079 Объем
16 апр. 2026 г.
Mejia 40%+
$980 Объем
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,582 Объем
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,480 Объем
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,658 Объем
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
$6,742 Объем
97%
Mejia <20%
$6,772 Объем
2%
Other
$865 Объем
1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, held April 16 to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, drives trader consensus at 96.7% odds for a 20-25% margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway. The Democratic-leaning North Jersey district, bolstered by post-2020 redistricting and Sherrill's strong incumbency legacy, saw Mejia secure approximately 62% of the vote in final tallies reported by the New Jersey Globe, yielding a nearly 20-point edge—a 12-point overperformance versus 2024 presidential results. Progressive organizer Mejia overcame a competitive Democratic primary and pocketed resistance in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston over foreign policy stances. Final county certifications and audits, completed by late April, cement this outcome barring improbable provisional ballot shifts or clerical errors.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Объем
$26,079Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, held April 16 to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, drives trader consensus at 96.7% odds for a 20-25% margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway. The Democratic-leaning North Jersey district, bolstered by post-2020 redistricting and Sherrill's strong incumbency legacy, saw Mejia secure approximately 62% of the vote in final tallies reported by the New Jersey Globe, yielding a nearly 20-point edge—a 12-point overperformance versus 2024 presidential results. Progressive organizer Mejia overcame a competitive Democratic primary and pocketed resistance in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston over foreign policy stances. Final county certifications and audits, completed by late April, cement this outcome barring improbable provisional ballot shifts or clerical errors.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$26,079Дата окончания
16 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrat Analilia Mejia's commanding lead in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, held April 16 to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, drives trader consensus at 96.7% odds for a 20-25% margin of victory over Republican Joe Hathaway. The Democratic-leaning North Jersey district, bolstered by post-2020 redistricting and Sherrill's strong incumbency legacy, saw Mejia secure approximately 62% of the vote in final tallies reported by the New Jersey Globe, yielding a nearly 20-point edge—a 12-point overperformance versus 2024 presidential results. Progressive organizer Mejia overcame a competitive Democratic primary and pocketed resistance in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston over foreign policy stances. Final county certifications and audits, completed by late April, cement this outcome barring improbable provisional ballot shifts or clerical errors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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