US-Iran negotiations over Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium stockpile continue amid a seven-month conflict, with facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged or destroyed by prior US-Israeli strikes. Roughly 200 kg or more of 60% enriched material is believed buried in Isfahan tunnels, though Iran has blocked IAEA inspectors and fortified sites with collapsed tunnels and mines, raising retrieval risks. Trump administration statements have linked any ceasefire extension or deal to stockpile removal or destruction under US oversight, yet recent comments from Vice President Vance emphasize the need for Iran to cut enrichment capacity without confirming a transfer timeline. Physical and diplomatic barriers, including Iranian denials of handover commitments and the absence of a verified baseline, keep trader-implied odds for US acquisition by year-end low. Ongoing talks and potential new diplomatic milestones could influence outcomes before any resolution date.
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