Trader sentiment on transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, hinges on persistent Middle East geopolitical risks elevating the oil risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures, currently trading around $90 per barrel. Recent US Navy destroyer passages, including the USS Spruance in early April, affirm routine military operations despite Iran-backed Houthi threats in the Red Sea diverting some tanker routes and lifting very large crude carrier (VLCC) charter rates by 15% year-to-date. No major disruptions reported in the past week, but escalating Israel-Iran tensions could prompt preemptive naval reinforcements. Key watch: US Central Command updates and April 30 resolution deadline, with markets pricing in low disruption probability amid daily commercial flows exceeding 20 million barrels per day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
20+
71%
40+
42%
60+
37%
80+
31%
$1,142 Объем
20+
$856 Объем
71%
40+
$68 Объем
42%
60+
$143 Объем
37%
80+
$75 Объем
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, hinges on persistent Middle East geopolitical risks elevating the oil risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures, currently trading around $90 per barrel. Recent US Navy destroyer passages, including the USS Spruance in early April, affirm routine military operations despite Iran-backed Houthi threats in the Red Sea diverting some tanker routes and lifting very large crude carrier (VLCC) charter rates by 15% year-to-date. No major disruptions reported in the past week, but escalating Israel-Iran tensions could prompt preemptive naval reinforcements. Key watch: US Central Command updates and April 30 resolution deadline, with markets pricing in low disruption probability amid daily commercial flows exceeding 20 million barrels per day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Объем
$1,142Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, hinges on persistent Middle East geopolitical risks elevating the oil risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures, currently trading around $90 per barrel. Recent US Navy destroyer passages, including the USS Spruance in early April, affirm routine military operations despite Iran-backed Houthi threats in the Red Sea diverting some tanker routes and lifting very large crude carrier (VLCC) charter rates by 15% year-to-date. No major disruptions reported in the past week, but escalating Israel-Iran tensions could prompt preemptive naval reinforcements. Key watch: US Central Command updates and April 30 resolution deadline, with markets pricing in low disruption probability amid daily commercial flows exceeding 20 million barrels per day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$1,142Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, hinges on persistent Middle East geopolitical risks elevating the oil risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures, currently trading around $90 per barrel. Recent US Navy destroyer passages, including the USS Spruance in early April, affirm routine military operations despite Iran-backed Houthi threats in the Red Sea diverting some tanker routes and lifting very large crude carrier (VLCC) charter rates by 15% year-to-date. No major disruptions reported in the past week, but escalating Israel-Iran tensions could prompt preemptive naval reinforcements. Key watch: US Central Command updates and April 30 resolution deadline, with markets pricing in low disruption probability amid daily commercial flows exceeding 20 million barrels per day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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