The recent US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, effective November 27, 2024, has sharply reduced trader consensus for Israeli Defense Forces entering Beirut, with market odds reflecting low implied probability amid de-escalation terms requiring Hezbollah's withdrawal south of the Litani River and IDF pullback to the border over 60 days. Prior to the truce, IDF ground operations focused on southern Lebanon up to 12 km deep, while airstrikes targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut suburbs, including leadership assassinations, but stopped short of urban ground incursion. Fragile implementation persists with reported violations like rocket fire, and upcoming UNIFIL monitoring could sway sentiment if tensions reignite, though historical precedents favor contained southern engagements over a 1982-style push to the capital.