Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
Иран успешно нацелился на судоходство на...?
$271,553 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
March 18
No
March 19
No
March 20
No
March 21
No
March 22
No
March 23
No
March 24
No
March 25
No
March 26
No
March 27
No
March 28
No
March 29
No
March 30
Yes
March 31
No
$271,553 Объем
March 18
$0 Объем
No
March 19
$0 Объем
No
March 20
$0 Объем
No
March 21
$0 Объем
No
March 22
$0 Объем
No
March 23
$0 Объем
No
March 24
$7,923 Объем
No
March 25
$33,950 Объем
No
March 26
$7,926 Объем
No
March 27
$22,660 Объем
No
March 28
$8,522 Объем
No
March 29
$10,702 Объем
No
March 30
$21,407 Объем
Yes
March 31
$158,464 Объем
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$271,553Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Объем
$271,553Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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