President Trump's April 12 announcement of a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz followed failed peace talks with Iran, escalating tensions over nuclear limits and shipping tolls; traders now price a 61% chance of an explicit lift announcement by June 30, with lower odds for May dates amid stalled progress. Energy Secretary Chris Wright revealed yesterday that the US halted its brief "Project Freedom" ship escort operation—launched early May and paused after two days—at Iran's request, positioning the blockade as a key bargaining chip in ongoing diplomacy. No qualifying official statement has ended the blockade, despite increased maritime activity; upcoming negotiations, including potential Trump-Xi summit talks, could prompt resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSaudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement,
June 30 jumps to 65%14%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no US lift announcement, contributing to market uncertainty
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
June 30 drops to 51%5%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a ceasefire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully
June 30 surges to 71%46%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a ceasefire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism and a surge in market
Reports emerge that President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions
May 22 drops to 24%6%
The reaffirmation of a prolonged blockade and no official lifting announcement led to a
Iran announces partial reopening of the Strait for commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached
May 22 rises to 22%4%
This ambiguous situation caused market volatility but no clear signal of blockade lifting.
Reports emerge that President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low
June 30 drops to 18%10%
Reports emerge that President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade and pushing
US Vice President J.D. Vance states the next move is Iran's, with the US maintaining the blockade, heightening tensions and reducing optimism for a blockade lift by May 15
May 15 dips to 17%3%
US Vice President J.D. Vance states the next move is Iran's, with the US maintaining the blockade, heightening tensions and reducing optimism for a blockade lift by May 15
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached,
May 15 drops to 11%9%
US announces an indefinite ceasefire permitting oil tankers to transit the Strait but explicitly states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reinforcing expectations of no lifting by May 15
Continued official statements confirm the blockade remains in place, with Trump insisting on a comprehensive deal before lifting, and US Central Command denying Iranian claims of
May 31 rises to 41%1%
Continued official statements confirm the blockade remains in place, with Trump insisting on a comprehensive deal before lifting, and US Central Command denying Iranian claims of attacks on US warships, maintaining market skepticism about a lift announcement by May 31
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift
May 8 plunges to 1%29%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift before May 8
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused temporarily while negotiations progress, reiterating the blockade remains in effect, which caused a dip in market
June 30 plunges to 8%65%
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused temporarily while negotiations progress, reiterating the blockade remains in effect, which caused a dip in market confidence
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
May 15 drops to 8%5%
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
May 8 drops to 3%6%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, increasing diplomatic pressure but no US lifting
May 15 jumps to 35%9%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade amid fears of regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, increasing diplomatic pressure but no US lifting announcement, causing volatility and a
Iran announces partial reopening of the Strait for commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but President Trump states the blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached,
June 30 surges to 81%18%
Iran announces partial reopening of the Strait for commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but President Trump states the blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached, causing market volatility and a peak at 81% before a correction
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 8 dips to 3%2%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully
June 30 surges to 71%15%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism that the U.S. blockade could be lifted
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions
May 22 drops to 14%5%
This official preparation for an extended blockade lowered market confidence in a May 22 lift announcement.
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
May 8 drops to 3%5%
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the blockade, signaling partial
June 30 rises to 57%1%
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the blockade, signaling partial reopening but no full lift announced
President Trump announces "Project Freedom," allowing US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, a partial
May 15 dips to 13%1%
President Trump announces "Project Freedom," allowing US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, a partial reopening that caused minor market fluctuations but no lifting announcement
Market hits a low as no official announcement of blockade lifting occurs and tensions remain high, with Iran threatening retaliation and no diplomatic breakthrough reported
May 31 drops to 42%14%
Market hits a low as no official announcement of blockade lifting occurs and tensions remain high, with Iran threatening retaliation and no diplomatic breakthrough reported
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full
May 8 dips to 4%2%
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full effect
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
May 8 dips to 8%4%
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
Trump launches "Project Freedom," allowing US Navy to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, a partial easing that does
May 31 drops to 56%7%
Trump launches "Project Freedom," allowing US Navy to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, a partial easing that does not qualify as lifting the blockade, causing some market
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced and that the operation is set to continue
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not
May 22 drops to 16%10%
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not being lifted
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a
May 8 dips to 5%3%
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a lift before May 8 is unlikely
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls for passage through the Strait, signaling strict enforcement of the blockade and reducing likelihood of lifting
May 15 drops to 14%7%
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls for passage through the Strait, signaling strict enforcement of the blockade and reducing likelihood of lifting soon
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
May 8 drops to 4%5%
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S.
May 22 dips to 26%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S. lift announcement
Trump publicly confirms continuation of the blockade, emphasizing destruction of 80% of Iran’s missile capabilities and warning of further strikes if no deal is reached,
May 31 dips to 82%3%
Trump publicly confirms continuation of the blockade, emphasizing destruction of 80% of Iran’s missile capabilities and warning of further strikes if no deal is reached, increasing market confidence that no lift announcement will come soon
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
June 30 plunges to 56%15%
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
April 30 dips to 0%3%
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
May 8 plunges to 30%22%
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to
May 22 dips to 26%4%
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to non‑Iranian ports are still allowed
US Central Command confirms blockade enforcement began April 13, clarifying it targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but not those transiting to non-Iranian ports,
May 15 jumps to 21%5%
US Central Command confirms blockade enforcement began April 13, clarifying it targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but not those transiting to non-Iranian ports, adding operational detail and firming market confidence in blockade enforcement but not lifting
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
May 15 dips to 16%4%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This escalation reduced optimism for a blockade lift by May 15
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon
May 22 plunges to 28%32%
This hardened US military stance after failed peace talks reduced expectations for a near-term blockade lift.
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
May 8 drops to 11%11%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
May 31 drops to 60%14%
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear
May 8 plunges to 10%42%
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear demands, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade
Trump rejects Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will remain until Iran meets US nuclear demands, as reported
May 31 surges to 85%37%
Trump rejects Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will remain until Iran meets US nuclear demands, as reported in an Axios interview and multiple news outlets, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade
President Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran accepts nuclear demands,
May 15 drops to 20%5%
President Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Iran accepts nuclear demands, reinforcing expectations of prolonged blockade. This hardened stance contributed to further
Reports emerge that Trump directed aides to prepare for an extended blockade amid stalled diplomacy and Iran's mine-laying and threats, with no acceptance of Tehran's conditional
May 31 drops to 77%5%
Reports emerge that Trump directed aides to prepare for an extended blockade amid stalled diplomacy and Iran's mine-laying and threats, with no acceptance of Tehran's conditional reopening offers, sustaining market uncertainty
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, underscoring a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran amid stalled diplomacy and no lifting announcement.
April 30 drops to 6%7%
This official preparation for prolonging the blockade further reduced market confidence in lifting by April 30
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling
May 15 drops to 25%9%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade. This official preparation caused a sharp drop in market confidence for lifting by early May
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
May 31 drops to 74%6%
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
April 30 drops to 16%12%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to further
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
May 8 drops to 5%6%
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage, after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
April 30 plunges to 38%25%
Trump confirms the US blockade remains fully in effect, escalating tensions and reducing odds of a near-term lifting
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
May 31 drops to 77%6%
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
May 8 plunges to 11%20%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
President Donald Trump announces the imposition of a US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade that underpins the
President Donald Trump announces the imposition of a US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran nuclear talks, initiating the blockade that underpins the market question
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and
April 30 jumps to 60%11%
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders

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